I love this stuff. Over/Unders, betting lines, prop bets, parlays…..alright, I might have a problem. But before I get professional help, let’s take a look which teams Vegas thinks will do well. Or which teams does Vegas think you’ll foolishly bet on in a futile attempt to make up for last year’s losses.
Chad Millman, ESPN’s gambling expert, shows us the NFL team win totals from two of the Vegas casinos. The link is for ESPN Insiders only, but never fear, I’ll disperse the relevant information after the jump.
The NFL is designed so that every team finishes the year 8-8. The salary cap (though not this year), free agency, the draft – all these things are designed to keep every team at .500.
It’s no surprise, then, that the Vegas win totals are all between 11 and five. Three wins to the north and south of 8-8.
Where the Falcons Rank
The Venetian thinks the Falcons are an 8-8 team while Lucky’s show them a little more love at 9-7. There’s been a lot of talk about this being the Falcons’ year. In a reader poll on this blog, the win total consensus was 11.
The NFC South and the rest of the league
The rest of the NFC South shakes out with the New Orleans Saints at 10.5, the Carolina Panthers at 7.5 (8 at Lucky’s) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 5.5. Those numbers aren’t too much of a surprise and differ only slightly from last season’s actual totals.
The Falcons rank 8th in the NFC and 15th among all NFL teams. That would mean Vegas does not believe they are a playoff team. Or they believe that Falcon fans are more pessimistic after years of disappointment. Either way, I’m taking the over. If Matt Ryan thinks 12 or more, I’m onboard too.