Can Dunta bring an NFC title to Atlanta? Football Outsiders thinks so.

Simulation: Falcons are #1 in the NFC

In the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons will be crowned in 2010. At least, according to Football Outsiders, via ESPN. Let them explain how they reached that conclusion:

Who’ll wrangle their way into Cowboys Stadium next February? The Mag eyeballs the NFC candidates below, and Football Outsiders adds graphs that chart the percentage of times each team finished with every possible regular-season win total over 10,000 FBO season simulations.

Hit the jump for all the juicy details.

From the article (Insider-only):

The Falcons are the #1 team in the simulation averaging 9.6 wins. The Cardinals and the Packers are tied for #2 at 9.4. The full list is below, followed by the Falcons analysis from the piece.

1. Atlanta Falcons
Projected record: 10-6

BEST-CASE SCENARIO
LB Curtis Lofton and CB Chevis Jackson, both 2008 picks, hit their stride, as new CB Dunta Robinson anchors the spotty secondary.

WORST-CASE SCENARIO
Robinson is just another stain on the pass D, while a leaner RB Michael Turner isn’t any more resilient.

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