Can Dunta bring an NFC title to Atlanta? Football Outsiders thinks so.

Simulation: Falcons are #1 in the NFC

In the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons will be crowned in 2010. At least, according to Football Outsiders, via ESPN. Let them explain how they reached that conclusion:

Who’ll wrangle their way into Cowboys Stadium next February? The Mag eyeballs the NFC candidates below, and Football Outsiders adds graphs that chart the percentage of times each team finished with every possible regular-season win total over 10,000 FBO season simulations.

Hit the jump for all the juicy details.

From the article (Insider-only):

The Falcons are the #1 team in the simulation averaging 9.6 wins. The Cardinals and the Packers are tied for #2 at 9.4. The full list is below, followed by the Falcons analysis from the piece.

1. Atlanta Falcons
Projected record: 10-6

LB Curtis Lofton and CB Chevis Jackson, both 2008 picks, hit their stride, as new CB Dunta Robinson anchors the spotty secondary.

Robinson is just another stain on the pass D, while a leaner RB Michael Turner isn’t any more resilient.

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  • James Grayson

    It’s nice to get glowing pre-season reviews from big name media outlets, but I also find myself thinking superstitiously.

    Every year it seems analysts and experts pick a particular team to win and they are never do.

    Hopefully these experts are right and we take the NFC crown!

    • Troy Heinzman

      I completely agree!!! It is way better to fly under the radar. The popular pick always seems to fall on their face. Here’s hoping that trend is broken.

  • Robb Maag

    Great. The Falcons have bucked trends throughout the franchise’s entire history. They’ve only done well when no one notices. Let’s hope Smitty can change that too.

    • Troy Heinzman

      If there’s a team that can do it, it’s this one. Winning when you’re expected to win is a sign of a champion.

  • Adam

    You guys are f—-ing idiots. You really think Atlanta can go deep into the post season? The Falcons are and will always be irrelevant. There is no football in Atlanta. It’s a joke. Atlanta are the Braves, not the Hawks, the Yellow jackets and Bulldogs, not the Falcons. Falcons football is garbage. Even if by some freak accident, and the Falcons do win a super bowl ever, it will be quickly dismissed and forgotten like when the Ravens, Bucs and Rams won. Atlanta is IR-RELEVANT.