Initial assumptions and Prior Bias

The Giants along with the Broncos and possibly the Patriots are about the most complete team in the NFL this year. Outside of inconsistent performance their only real “weakness” lies in fairly average back 7 on defense. Unfortunately, when their defensive line comes ready to play, a lot of problems are masked and the defense becomes a monster. I will be using considerably less statistical data this week, since the Giants inconsistent effort and performance means statistical information could be misleading.

Giants Offense Vs Falcons Defense

The Giants offense is similar to the Bucs offense in a lot of ways. They use their running game to move the chains and their passing game to create big plays. The Giants average 4.5 yards per carry (YPC) and 116.4 yards per game (YPG), while Eli Manning averages a healthy 7.4 yards per attempt on his passes while completing only 60.8% of his passes. Against the Bucs, the Falcons chose to concentrate on shutting down the run and force Freeman to beat them using short and intermediate passing to move the chains. Unfortunately for the Falcons, Manning is a much better QB than Freeman; and with his receiving targets, he is much more capable of moving the chains using the passing game. In addition, the Giants O-line is excellent in pass protection giving Manning plenty of time to find his receivers.

The good news for the Falcons is the injuries to Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw. Nicks is a do it all receiver for the Giants and is very important especially in his ability to move the chains for the offense. If he is limited, the Falcons could have more success with a single high safety look and 8 men in the box. Bradshaw is the other significant injury that could help the Falcons. Although, David Wilson, Bradshaw’s backup is fast and shifty, the Falcons have had much more success with speed backs considering the closing speed on this defense. The more significant tackling problems have come against physical runners like Bradshaw. Even with the injuries though, this is one of the most potent offenses the Falcons have faced all year and the Falcons defense will do well to limit them to less than 25 points in the game.

Giants Defense Vs Falcons Offense

This is where the game will be decided; specifically how the offensive line fares against the pass rushing hydra that is the Giants defensive line. The Giants defensive line has been a statistically mediocre pass rushing unit this season but I have no doubt that they are capable of being among the very best at making life hell for Matt Ryan on Sunday which means the Falcons will have to lean on the two units of their offense that have been the shakiest – the offensive line and the running backs.

The Giants defense has been atrocious against the run this season. They are allowing 4.7 YPA (29^th in NFL) and 123.3 YPG on the ground and have suffered from mediocre play from the DT as well as the linebacker positions. The other significant weakness that the Falcons can exploit is in the secondary. They are allowing 63% of the passes thrown at them to be completed @ 8.1 yards per attempt. In addition, they allow TDs on 4.6% of all passes attempted (better than Eli Manning has managed). The only redeeming stat for the Giants secondary is that they are adept at picking off passes (close to twice as effective as the average NFL defense). The key here again is offensive line performance because Ryan can most likely annihilate the Giants secondary if the line can keep him upright long enough but if he is forced to dump off to his RBs or force passes in the middle of the field we could have a long day.

Special Teams

The Giants have a good special teams unit highlighted by the electric David Wilson. Matt Bosher is going to have to be on his game especially on kickoffs where he has to do better than the 3 kickoff returns per game that Atlanta allows on average. The Falcons coverage units have been vulnerable this season and if Wilson gets three decent shots he could possibly break one open.

Key Battles

No surprises here. It’s going to be between the Falcons offensive line Vs the Giants defensive line.

Moral of the story

The Giants are a bad matchup for this Falcons team. The 2010 Falcons with their run based, chew the clock away offense would match up better against this Giants team. The Falcons need to come out looking to control the game with the running game and short quick passes to put the Giants D-line on their heels. Ideally, the Falcons would run behind their tackles and right at the vaunted Giants defensive ends forcing them to pay attention to their run responsibilities. Unfortunately, I do not think this is possible with Michael Turner behind this offensive line. If the Falcons are intent on winning this game they need to commit to Jacquizz Rodgers here. His shiftiness and dual threat is essential to keeping the Giants off balance as well as pressuring their mediocre linebacker core.

This is the game I’m least confident about this season and considering we play the Superbowl champions it seems apt. The funny thing is though, I actually think we are capable of beating them in an elimination game but I am still not sure if the Falcons will bring playoff intensity to this game. Giants fans are probably frustrated by their team coming to playing only when they feel like it. Unfortunately, despite not having won anything this Falcons team has an infuriating habit of doing the same. They seemingly refuse to get serious until they are in trouble. Unfortunately, this Giants team is built to punish such behavior. Get behind and you will pay heavily. I hope the Falcons come ready to play on Sunday.

Stats used in this article are from ESPN.com unless stated otherwise.

Game Review

The most concerning aspects of yesterday’s game however, were the recurring problems that we have seen pop up for these Falcons all year and in some cases throughout Mike Smith’s tenure as head coach.

• First off, the coaching. I can somewhat understand (notice I did not say agree) that the Falcons did not feel disrespected enough by Greg Hardy’s comments to come out with extra motivation to shut him up, but the absolute no show in the first half was an inexcusable display of poor professionalism. It looks like the team took more than just four days off after the Saints game.
• On a related note, did the coaches not gameplan at all? In the first game, the Panthers scored using option plays with Newton and play action passing off of the threat of their run game. In this game, the Panther scored using option plays with Newton and play action passing off of the threat of their run game. What’s more, this has been the basis of Carolina’s offense the entire year. So I ask again, did the coaches not gameplan at all?
• The pass rush (something I mentioned last week) and their inability to close the deal. The Falcons, as in years past, are doing a good job pressuring the QB. However, they are doing a poor job converting that pressure into a negative play for the offense (sack, pick or incompletion). This is especially true against mobile QBs as demonstrated by Cam Newton yesterday.
• Ryan’ s play under pressure (also mentioned last week). A big part of the problem is poor pass protection up front but Ryan is not helping his line out. He is demonstrating remarkably poor pocket presence and for the second game in a row I detected the return of Ryan’s “happy feet”. It looks like Ryan doesn’t trust his line and that they are out of sync.
• Michael Turner (also mentioned…sensing a pattern?) looks slow. Although very little blame for this loss should be laid at Turner’s feet, he still looks like a spent force. I am praying that the coaches are smart enough to avoid using him in any critical situation down the road.
• Tackling – was NOT mentioned last week but has been an on again off again problem all season. As much as I hate to admit it the Falcons miss Curtis Lofton. The decision to let Lofton go was a calculated gamble based on the cap situation but Akeem Dent s playing extremely poorly. He is not dynamic enough to be a big playmaker and even when he is in position he gets blocked out of the play far too easily. To be fair though, the larger blame for the touchdown should probably go to the missed tackle by #27 McClain (Bruce Willis is very disappointed in you Robert).
• Lastly, and this is only in the last two games but our receivers are not gaining a lot of separation downfield which is surprising considering the state of the Saints and Panthers secondary corp.

Film Breakdown

This week, we break down one of Carolina’s sacks. The Panthers rush 4 down linemen while bringing a linebacker on a delayed blitz. This is supposed to be a slow developing route implied by Ryan’s 7 step drop (which explains why both receivers downfield being covered when Ryan was sacked). The Falcons thus, have their six men in to block while the fullback chips the right DE on his way out to the route. Blalock and Baker (with a little chip blocking help) are blocking one-on-one on the left side of the line while the right side of the line has three blockers accounting for two rushers. Turner furthest back is on blitz pick up and he does so when the middle LB comes on a delayed blitz. Initially (see first screenshot), McClure and Konz double team #99, Javon Kearse while Clabo is one-on-one with #95, Charles Johnson.

Seeing Johnson(#95) gaining an edge on the inside (see second screenshot), Konz(#66) disengages from Kearse and helps Clabo with Johnson.

Unfortunately, McClure is unprepared for this and it gives Kearse an opening to his left. Meanwhile Johnson counters to move to Clabo’s outside making Konz’s help useless. Johnson coming around from the outside forces Ryan into the pocket where Kearse is waiting for him. Result: 8 yard loss for a sack.

Playoff Picture

Despite the loss, the Falcons are in a very good position in terms of the playoff picture. With a win against the Giants and a loss from either the Packers (away @ the Bears) or the Niners (away @ the Patriots) they can clinch a first round bye. If they both lose, the Falcons will be guaranteed the number 1 seed.

One for the Road

I’m stilled a little miffed about the failed two point conversion. I understand how and why the decision was made but considering that one of the officials (the one closest to the action I might add) had signaled a score and the replay review showed that Roddy more than likely made the catch, the call still left me with a sour taste in my mouth. This was compounded by catch and fumble ruling on the next drive for the panthers. While the commentators were convinced he took a couple of steps before he fumbled, I thought he began to lose control of the ball before he took his second step which would have resulted in an incompletion. To compound this, the referee gave the Panthers the first down despite the ball going out of bounds short of the first down line.

To be completely fair though, the Panthers were never in any serious danger of losing this game and even if both of those decisions had been reversed they were still most likely to win the game. I’m annoyed largely because the Falcons were robbed of the possibility for yet another fourth quarter comeback opportunity.

December 2, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) warms up before the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Hello, gentle readers. This is the first in a series of statistically inclined preview – type posts I will be writing here at BD. This week we look at the Carolina Panthers. When last we met, the Panthers were projected to be Superbowl champions. Unfortunately for them their season has not turned out as well as Ryan Kalil expected and considering their injuries they may fall further before they hit rock bottom.

Initial assumptions and Prior Bias

Based on our last meeting and what little I have seen of them I expect the Panthers to bring a strong pass rush, an excellent short yardage game and above average QB play from Cam Newton. Their biggest problem seems to have been an inability to close out games and some remarkable questionable decision making from the coaches especially at the end of games which may explain their struggles in that situation.

Panthers Defense Vs Falcons Offense

The Panthers defense has allowed 347.8 yards per game and 24.3 points per game (ppg) which is not good but considering that their opponents have scored 24.4 ppg on average I would categorize as them as mediocre more than bad.

The panthers run defense allows 4.4 yards per carry (YPC), 128.8 yards per game while allowing 50.7% of running plays against them to be successful*, all of which is points to a mediocre run defense. A large part of this can be attributed to defensive line performance. Carolina ranks 2^nd to last in defensive line performance according to football outsiders’ metric of adjusted line yards and considering Dwan Edwards’ (DT) injury the situation may not improve. Look for the Falcons to establish the run game early if for no reason than to put the Panthers pass rushers back on their heels.

While their defensive line may be doing an atrocious job run blocking they have been exceptionally good while pass rushing. They have 30 sacks and they are 4^th in the NFL with an adjusted sack rate**of 7.5%. Ironically the Panthers pass rush was terrible early in the season and woke up only after the first Falcons game when Charles Johnson abused Sam Baker. Their secondary, however, has not improved since the last time we met. They are allowing a 67.3% completion rate, 7.03 yards per pass attempt (YPA) and an opposition passer rating of 91.63. To give you a frame of reference, if that were the passer rating of a fictional quarterback that guy would have the 12^th highest passer rating in the NFL above Andy Dalton, Matt Stafford and Eli Manning. As long as the offensive line keeps Matt Ryan upright, he will shred the Panthers defense.

Panthers Offense

This is what I wrote about the Panthers offense before the last game

The panthers passing game is a reflection of its QB. It’s all about the highlights. As a result there will be a lot of big plays… for both teams.

This statement was based on Cam Newton’s remarkably high completion percentage (65.12%) and yards per attempt (9.81) numbers as well his high interception rate (6%) early in the season. Cam has since cut down on the mistakes, bringing his interception rate down to 2.8% (below league average) while still maintaining a league leading 8.3 YPA indicating that the Panthers will use the threat of their running game to gain chunks of yards in the passing game.  The Panthers have used play action passing to a large extent this season and they have been very successful with it.

The problem for the Panthers is that their running game despite large financial investments is decidedly mediocre. They gain a modest 4.2 YPC and 112.8 yard per game and succeed on only 45.7%* of their runs despite the presence of Newton as a potent threat. Most of the blame appears to rest with the offensive line which by football outsiders’ metrics is 2^nd worst in the league. In addition, the line is also poor at pass protection allowing an adjusted sack rate** of 7.9% good for 26^th in the NFL. Ergo expect the Panthers to lean on their run game especially considering the Falcons appalling run defense. In fact, how the Panthers running game fares could be one of the keys to this game. As long as the Falcons control the Panthers run game early they should be fine. If they do not, they expose themselves to the Panthers playaction passing game. Mike Nolan will thus, need to roll out the 3 tackle look for long periods in this game. On the upside the interior of the Panthers line appears to be their weakest link so expect Babineaux, Corey Peters and “Swagger” Vance Walker to have big days.

Key Battles

• Panthers Interior line Vs Falcons DTs
• Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy Vs Sam Baker and Tyson Clabo

Moral of the story

There’s two ways I can see this game going. One of them was like last the last Panthers game where Johnson and Hardy come out on fire and the Falcons passing game struggles while the Panthers move the ball behind Cam and the running game sprinkling in some playaction passes to make life hell for the defense. More likely, considering the Falcons extended rest as well as the Panthers injuries is that the Falcons come out looking to control the game behind Turner and the running game like they did against the Saints. Ordinarily, I would be worried about the potential of a trap game considering the intensity of the Saints game. However, I believe the Falcons already had the Panthers trap game earlier in the season. As a result, I expect the Falcons to come out motivated to do well. I don’t think this will be a blowout but I do expect a much more comfortable win than the last game. Look for big days from Turner and Julio Jones. Also, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Newton ending up with a good statline.

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