November 25, 2012; Tampa, FL, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Michael Turner (33) is congratulated by wide receiver Roddy White (84) after he scored a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Atlanta Falcons defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24-23. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Here are Blogging Dirty’s staff predictions for tonight’s game:

Ian Borders: 

This is a must win for the Saints, which means this is a statement game for the Falcons. Much like the last game, I think this will come down to one or two critical plays that will sway the game in the favor of one team. I think Jacquizzwill play a pivotal role with more carries, mainly just because I loved seeing him juke Curtis Lofton out of his ACL last game in the open field. Tony G. will be a large factor, and the Falcons must stop Jimmy Graham from dunking the ball. In a rowdy, egg throwing spanaza, I’ve got the Falcons….”EGG-cellent!”

Saints- 20 Falcons- 24

Sergio Jewell: 

Nov 18, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) takes the field before the game against the Arizona Cardinals at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons defeated the Cardinals, 23-19. Mandatory Credit: Josh D. Weiss-US PRESSWIRE

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints. It’s the most bitter rivalry in the NFC South, one of the most heated in the entire NFL, and clearly not understood by those outside the rivalry. This is the biggest game left on the Falcons schedule, even though the Falcons still have other very tough games left after Week 13. In previewing the Falcons vs. Saints, here are the player v. player matchups to keep an eye on:

Falcons SS/LB William Moore & Sean Weatherspoon vs. Saints TE Jimmy Graham: In the Falcons & Saints first matchup, Weatherspoon was out while fighting an ankle injury. Moore was matched up with Graham half the time, and didn’t do a particularly good job, but he’s going to have to do better this time around, because he’s the only Atlanta DB with the size to matchup. The other player who matched-up with Graham in Week 10 was LB Stephen Nicholas, who is a fine defender, but not a player of Weatherspoon’s caliber when playing coverage. The Falcons have to contain Graham better than the 7 catches for 146 yards and 2 TDs he had the last time these two teams matched up.

Falcons LBs Sean Weatherspoon & Stephen Nicholas vs. Saints RB Darren Sproles: Weatherspoon was out the last time these teams met with an ankle injury, but Sproles was also out while recovering from hand surgery. The man is clearly still a huge threat. His first game back was last week against the San Francisco 49ers, and Sproles caught 7 passes for 65 yards. One of those passes went for 35 yards. Some interesting news is that he didn’t get a single carry, so when he’s on the field it’s obvious what the Saints intentions are. Now that the Falcons have Weatherspoon back, it will be  his responsibility to counter Sproles in the passing game. The biggest thing Sproles does is take short passes and make things happen after the catch. ‘Spoon needs to try to break up the pass, but absolutely has to make the open field tackle and not allow any yards after the catch. The exact same can be said for Stephen Nicholas who will likely match up with Sproles when ‘Spoon is assigned to defending Graham.

Falcons receivers vs. Saints defensive backs in the red-zone: Clearly the Falcons aren’t having trouble moving the ball on the Saints defense between the twenties. That defense is something akin to a sieve. The real place that the Falcons offense struggled against the Saints (and against other teams for that matter), has been in the red-zone. Far too often, the Falcons have driven right down the field and come away with only a field goal. The three times that Ryan did throw a touchdown in the red-zone against the Saints, the receivers weren’t really open– Tony Gonzalez is just a beast in that area, and a tackle eligible pass that fooled most people. Roddy White nearly had the game winning score, but couldn’t get the extra foot of separation necessary to score. In those red-zone situations, the Atlanta receivers have to get separation, and when they can’t, they must position themselves so the only option is for them to come down with the pass. Red-zone efficiency for the Falcons in the red-zone is a must. 

November 25, 2012; Tampa, FL, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) drops back during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

It could not have possibly been any closer, but the Atlanta Falcons beat divisional foe, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24-23 in Tampa.

The Falcons got within field goal range on their first possession by doing something they haven’t done particularly well all season long– running the football. But on that first possession, they didn’t slam Michael Turner up the middle. Instead, they found creative ways to run Jacquizz Rodgers both to the outside, and allowing cutback lanes for him. He was extremely effective, and while the Falcons weren’t able to get into the end-zone, it certainly showed that the Falcons can be successful running the ball on the perimeter. Throughout the game, runs up the middle with Rodgers or Turner continued to flounder. I guess some things rarely change.

Matt Ryan threw an early interception, and I’m sure it just about sent every Falcon fan into outer limits, the same way it did me. I was absolutely beside myself with shock that he continued to throw picks. But aside from that throw, Ryan was absolutely outstanding. He completed 81% of his passes, his touchdown pass came on an 80-yard bomb to Julio Jones, and he posted a passer rating of 110. But what he did that didn’t show up on the stat sheet made an even bigger difference. He didn’t play one single snap scared, continued to make big-time throws, and moved the chains exactly when the Falcons needed to the very most. I’d love for him to have thrown a couple more touchdowns, but each of his 353 yards were valuable. He also set a franchise record by passing for 300+ yards in 4 consecutive games.

Aside from the determined and inspired play of Ryan, the biggest story line was the Atlanta defense. This is a unit that ranked 26th in the NFL defending the run coming into the day, and it was generally accepted that Buccaneer Doug Martin would have an absolutely massive day. His longest run was for 8 yards, and while he did showcase his ability to punch the ball into the endzone with his two short yardage touchdowns, he was generally held in check. He had a total of 50 yards on 21 carries. Even Michael Turner can point out that that isn’t a particularly good average per carry. Clearly the return of Sean Weatherspoon to the starting rotation at linebacker made a big difference.

The secondary gave up several big plays, specifically a pair of 30+ yard gains to Vincent Jackson and Tiquan Underwood. The Falcons were committing to keeping Doug Martin in check, and gave up a couple big passing plays as a result. Luckily, none of those big pass plays turned into big pass touchdowns. The Falcons were able to prevent Josh Freeman from throwing a touchdown, an accomplishment not to be sniffed at.

The defensive play of the game may be the open field tackle that Mike Peterson had on Doug Martin in the second quarter. He successfully defended the edge, didn’t let Martin around him, and made the tackle for a loss. Great play by Peterson to save a touchdown.

Two more notes. Julio Jones had a massive day. More than half of his yards came on one passing play (the 80-yard touchdown catch), but not a single person complained about that. He had six catches for a career high 147 yards, and looked outstanding. Commentator Charles Davis likened him to ‘Secretariat’ running down the field.

Matt Ryan also fumbled the football when E.J. Biggers, a blitzer the Falcons did not pick up and Ryan did not see, came in and jarred the ball loose. Luckily, the Atlanta defense did a great job holding Tampa to a field goal. Once again, Atlanta’s defense came to the rescue.