Oct 14, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; The Atlanta Falcons offense huddles around quarterback Matt Ryan (2) during the second half at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons defeated the Raiders 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Josh D. Weiss-USA TODAY Sports

First I want to apologize that I had not submitted any writing the last two days, I had some unexpected problems come up that made my access to a computer very limited.

But I wanted to bring up a topic that had been in my mind and I wanted some feedback from you guys.  With an outstanding offense, how important is defense?

Now don’t get me wrong, I would never suggest that you can do anything more than just get by with a bad defense. But in my last post, I pointed out that the Defense really isn’t all that bad.  They are one of the best teams to keep points off the board.  They had problems covering tight ends in the playoffs and had a hard time stopping the run along with the obvious pass rush problem.  However, except for a single game in Carolina, The Falcons actually fared well against rushing quarterbacks.  Michael Vick was a non-threat, Colin Kaepernick barely rushed at all and the only reason he looked any good statistically was the amount of times the tight end was so incredibly open.  Atlanta took Robert Griffin III out of the game, and was able to hold down Russell Wilson.  The defense is not bad, but it could obviously be improved upon and that’s why so much has gone into improving.  But how much better does it need to be to get the Falcons to the Super Bowl?

Matt Ryan had a career year and only shows signs of improvement.  He’s accurate at any point of the field and has a strong arm.  He has two number one receivers in Roddy White and Julio Jones.  He has a Hall of Fame tight end that rocks the red-zone with Tony Gonzalez.  Even Harry Douglas can catch all over the field.  On top of that, he has TWO running backs with great hands.  Steven Jackson will be the check down man along with Jacquizz Rodgers.  But with the Quzz and Jackson running the ball, the running woes the Falcons have faced in the past just won’t really be there, I don’t care how many miles you say Steven Jackson has on his tires.  He will stretch the field and has the ability to run past defenses.

Last year, Julio Jones made the “Pick your poison” argument that there were three great receivers that needed to be double-teamed to be taken out of the game and that that’s just not going to happen.  You can’t cover everyone at once.  Going 13-3 with a playoff win seems to show that argument was a pretty decent one.  But say hypothetically a defense could cover all three at once and still put pressure on Matt Ryan.  Guess who’s open now.  Steven Jackson will be there almost every time for a few yards.  The offense may be unstoppable.  The only thing Atlanta need is a defense that isn’t terrible and they have that with Mike Nolan making calls.  Take out a few risky throws that Matt Ryan makes and I dare you to name a defense that will be able to stop them.

I hate to say it (I actually love it) but I honestly believe the only way to beat the Falcons is to Outscore them while their defense just tries to hold on.  The biggest teams the NFC have a star-studded defense and some offensive weapons, but I don’t think Seattle and San Francisco can outscore Atlanta this year no matter how good their defense is.

Thoughts?

November 11, 2012; New Orleans, LA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) against the New Orleans Saints during the second half of a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints defeated the Falcons 31-27. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

As we all know, the Falcons regular season schedule was released last night.  I will add my two cents (along with every single blogger on every single Atlanta sports site on Earth).  But I don’t want to talk about strength of schedule or how each match up is going to go.  I want to talk best and worst case scenarios.  Yesterday I made the best and worst case scenario of what the Falcons schedule could be, but now we know what it is.

Some things you have to take into consideration when looking at the Falcons is that they don’t lose twice.  I heard an old saying that great teams don’t lose twice in a row.  Even when stacked with two back to back tough games, the falcons rarely lose twice in a row.  I think that sticks this season.  Regardless of what their record is, they won’t lose back to back.

Streaks are everything.  Sometimes the Falcons can get going on a nice streak and use the momentum to boost themselves into winning a game they probably shouldn’t have won.  A two game streak helped give Atlanta a boost going against New Orleans at home last season.  There are plenty of opportunities this coming season that could help Atlanta win over a tough team.

On the off chance you haven’t seen the schedule yet, here it is:

Week 1: @ New Orleans

Week 2: St. Louis

Week 3: @Miami

Week 4: New England

Week 5: N.Y. Jets

Week 6: BYE

Week 7: Tampa Bay

Week 8: @ Arizona

Week 9: @ Carolina

Week 10: @ Tampa Bay

Week 11: Seattle

Week 12: New Orleans

Week 13: @Buffalo

Week 14: @ Green Bay

Week 15: Washington

Week 16: @ San Francisco

Week 17: Carolina

Looking at this schedule, there are things to get excited about, and things to be worried about.  Opening the season in New Orleans isn’t going to be a joy ride and that game may have a huge impact on the early part of the season.  If they pull out a win then, they could be on a three-game win streak when hosting New England.  That could be huge.  What happens in week 1 could be the difference in going into the BYE week 5-0 or 3-2 and two losses will weigh heavy later in the year.

They also need to play well against Tampa (which they usually do at home not including last year) because that’s the last home game before embarking on a three week trip to Arizona, Carolina, and back to Tampa bay.  None of those are easy wins and they need to win most of them to keep up strong momentum.  But if they do, then a win streak could also help in coming home to play Seattle and New Orleans.  Considering those games are back to back, I can almost guarantee you that the Falcons won’t lose both of them.

Then it gets fun.  December rolls around and we’re going north.  Playing Buffalo shouldn’t be a factor considering it’s in a roofed stadium in Toronto, but the following week could be a very tough game against Green Bay in cold, COLD, weather. At least a home game against Washington and a most likely banged up Robert Griffin III should get them back on their feet before heading over to San Francisco for what could very well be a make-it-or-break-it game for one or both teams.  Finishing the season at home against Carolina may be just what we need.

After looking over the schedule and what professional pickers are choosing (I take their opinion with a grain of salt considering how little they actually know about the falcons minus raw statistics) I can predict the best and worst-case scenarios for the season.

Worst-case Scenario: 8-8.  A lot of tough games and if they drop some important early games, the rest of the season could dismantle them.

Best-case Scenario: 13-3. The schedule is tougher than the falcons are better next year, but you can’t count the Falcons out ever.  If the team stays healthy and gets those improbable wins at the most opportune times, the Falcons could use streaks and a powerful team to move into a first round BYE of the Playoffs.

Most Likely: 10-6.  The Falcons can beat anyone, but you can’t expect them to with this many great teams.  They could also easily go 11-5, but with a tough schedule and a few injuries here and there, the Falcons are going to have to play lights out at the end of the season because they’ll most likely be fighting for a playoff spot.

I still believe there are great things to come and if they can keep winning like they did last season, they could surprise us all.  How do you think they will do this season?

Sept. 30, 2012; Tampa FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Mark Barron (24) tackles Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III (10) during the first half at Raymond James Stadium. Barron was called for a penalty on the play. Mandatory Credit: Matt Stamey-US PRESSWIRE

Discipline is extremely important in the game of football, but it is even more important against teams with very athletic and mobile quarterbacks, that the defense play with extreme discipline. Over-pursuing by the defense is just as bad as giving up the edge to a fast runner.

One reason running quarterbacks can get so much yardage after they escape the initial pass-rush, is because the other defensive players that are dropping into coverage generally have their back turned to the ball-carrier and are playing the receiver. If the quarterback can get past the initial rush, they often have ten yards before a deep defender playing zone coverage can run up and make the play.

That’s key to stopping the former Heisman winner, Robert Griffin III. Keeping as many eyes as possible on Griffin is very important. You can’t simply rush four, have two safeties playing deep halves of the field, and man-to-man coverage underneath and expect to stop Griffin. So without any doubt, you will see a safety and a linebacker play a shallow zone. Not only does that prevent the pass by clogging up passing lanes, but it acts as a type of natural spy on the quarterback– both players are going to have their eyes pretty much locked in on Griffin, so if he scrambles, they will be able to counter easily.

I just mentioned how the underneath zones will have to work double duty to play the pass but also stop the run, and I have no doubt that Sean Weatherspoon, Stephen Nicholas, and Thomas DeCoud/William Moore can perform those roles when assigned to that duty. But the defensive line has something that it must do that may be even more important, and it has nothing to do from a statistical standpoint.

The defensive ends must set the edge and play contain. A lot of what Washington does with RGIII is use his mobility to get him outside the pocket, and then allow him to throw on the run or from a spot outside the pocket. You could describe it as moving the pocket to another spot. But the defensive ends of Atlanta have to prevent Washington from doing what they want. John Abraham is an outstanding pass-rushing defensive end, but if he over-pursues in trying to sack RGIII, the play could end in disaster. Abraham can go all out and rush if he is absolutely certain he can drag Griffin to the turf. If he isn’t positive he can do that, he must set the edge, and give the quarterback nowhere to escape. The same thing goes for Ray Edwards, who isn’t super productive, but excells at setting the edge. By slowly collapsing the pocket and allowing the defensive tackles to do most of the pass-rushing, it allows the Falcons to prevent the big play, and gives the secondary the opportunity to make plays on the ball in a limited window of time.

The third key is secondary play. Whatever the Falcons do in coverage is going to be extremely important. Remember how the Falcons disguised their coverage against Peyton Manning by showing one type of coverage pre-snap (Cover 3), and dropping into another coverage (Cover 4)? Well if that worked well against Manning, that is certainly going to work against the rookie Griffin. He is a tremendous talent and is mentally ahead of where most rookies would be at this point in their career. But let’s be honest, coverage disguises will be a huge tool to beat Griffin. If the Falcons are able to create a turnover or two off the confusion it may create, it would make all the difference in the world towards the Falcons winning the game.

One quick not on Griffin: he’s not your typical rookie quarterback. He’s much more mature and developed than your traditional rookie of the last couple years, and certainly more so than rookie QBs of yore. He also is not your typical mobile/athletic quarterback. Cam Newton is athletic, can run, and can really throw the ball, but is limited as far as making his progressions in the passing game and his decision making in general. RGIII is very good at reading his progressions, has great footwork in the pocket, and doesn’t telegraph his throws as much. But he also doesn’t present a problem as a power-runner the way Newton does. While similar in their athleticism, they are two very different quarterbacks. I think Griffin presents a unique and complicated challenge whose style of play is only similar to Michael Vick in the NFL. Rookie quarterback or not, the Falcons defense will have their hands completely full with defending Robert Griffin III.