The Atlanta Falcons apparently have the worst receiver group in the NFC South according to Pro Football Focus.
Pro Football Focus recently unveiled their rankings of the best receiving corps around the league and placed the Atlanta Falcons at the 13th spot.
When you have a guy like Julio Jones, placing the Atlanta Falcons at the 13th spot seems ill-advised and a heavy punch to the gut. While the Atlanta Falcons may not have a top-five receiving group, is placing the Atlanta Falcons at 13 and worst in the NFC South the correct idea?
Julio Jones ended the 2019 season just six yards shy of yet another 1,400 yards receiving season on 99 receptions (157 targets). Calvin Ridley didn’t really see the sudden improvement you would hope for with the departure of Sanu mid-season. His performance stayed relatively the same over the course of the next few weeks once Sanu was gone.
However, Ridley did see an increase in production over the course of Weeks 11 through 14. This stretch is where Ridley saw 37 targets (27 receptions) and nearly 400 yards receiving. Ridley ended his 2019 season short after suffering an abdominal injury in Week 14 against the Carolina Panthers.
Had his season not ended short, Ridley would have eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark for the first time in his two year career and saw over 100 targets.
"The problem is that the Falcons don’t have much behind those guys. Hayden Hurst should do a solid job of replacing Austin Hooper’s production, but the depth chart at wide receiver quickly falls to relatively unproven options like Russell Gage and Laquon Treadwell."
The player who saw the direct benefit from the Sanu trade was the second-year receiver, Russell Gage. The first seven games of the season saw Gage only record four receptions on eight targets with just 44 yards to show for. The following nine games saw Gage record 45 receptions on 66 targets and 405 yards. A much-improved stretch of the season compared to that of the first seven games.
The Atlanta Falcons will go into 2020 with 256 targets up for grabs from players who left the team (Austin Hooper – 97, Mohamed Sanu – 89, Devonta Freeman – 70).
We already know that Gage has the potential to cover the loss in targets left by Sanu, but the addition of former first-rounder, Laquon Treadwell, will hopefully offer viable competition that improves both players’ production in 2020.
However, it is entirely unknown how productive newcomer Hayden Hurst will be when tasked to replace one of Matt Ryan’s favorite targets, especially in clutch moments. After being an afterthought in Baltimore, Hurst hopes to reinvent his career in 2020 and has already begun working out with Matt Ryan during this offseason.
Whether or not Hurst can actually replace Hooper, he will have an ample amount of opportunities to prove his worth. While I don’t believe 97 targets are realistic for Hurst in his first season, I can see 60-70 targets as being a realistic benchmark for him in 2020.
Can Todd Gurley see 60+ targets in 2020? Maybe. The answer isn’t based on his athletic ability as he saw 80+ receptions in 2017 and 2018, however, will his body allow for him to see that many targets?
The unknown around Todd Gurley is his arthritic knee and if he can last all 16 games plus playoffs. Even the offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter, has stated the Atlanta Falcons don’t know the true extent of his knee troubles.
On the bright side, it’s great seeing Todd Gurley makes it a point to strengthen his knees.
"D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel provide a nice one-two punch, and the addition of Robby Anderson only strengthens the group. Anderson dealt with shaky accuracy downfield in New York, but he has earned a whopping 112 targets 20 or more yards downfield since 2016 (fifth in NFL)"
PFF labeled the Carolina Panthers as having the leagues 8th best pass catchers going into 2020. This is mainly on the backs of D.J. Moore and fourth-year receiver Curtis Samuel. While Moore is a solid player, the same cannot be said for his counterpart, Samuel.
Both receivers totaled over 100 targets in 2019 but most notably, Samuel totaled 105 targets and only caught 51 percent of his passes (54 receptions) while only gaining 627 yards. The Panthers also added Robby Anderson from free agency to be a deep threat option.
However, the last three seasons have seen Anderson targeted in the range of 114 to 94 times in a season and 2017 saw Anderson put forth his best catch percentage at 55 percent on 114 targets.
The Panthers have yet to find a replacement for Greg Olsen but also have the NFL’s best receiving back in Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers adding Teddy Bridgewater to their roster allows for this receiving corp to take a considerable jump in 2020.
"Thomas is hands down one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, but the Saints added another legitimate No. 1 wide receiver in Emmanuel Sanders this offseason to give Thomas some help at the position."
PFF placed the New Orleans Saints at the 4th spot. This is a reasonable spot for them as they do have one of the league’s best passing attack, no matter what stigma we place on Michael Thomas and his tendency to run short routes.
Thomas’ seven yards before catch per reception is lower than that of both Julio Jones (10.4) and Calvin Ridley (11.6). However, the difference between the three receivers is that Thomas averages more yards after catch (3.9) than both Jones (3.7) and Ridley (2.2).
This can be due to running shorter routes typically allows for more YAC. It’s hard to fault a guy who is playing in an offense built around a 41-year-old quarterback who struggles to throw 20 yards downfield. The Saints also added Emmanuel Sanders to their roster via free agency to add depth to their group.
This will be Sanders’s third team in two seasons but still adds a strong option in the passing game. Where New Orleans gets the upper hand is the playmaking ability of running back Alvin Kamara. While his yardage through the air has decreased each year during his career, he still averages 81 receptions over the course of each season while being targeted over 100 times.
It is fully reasonable to assume Kamara will bounce back in 2020 after a relatively disappointing 2019.
"The Buccaneers were the only team in the NFL with two top-10 wide receivers in terms of PFF grade in 2019 — Chris Godwin finished the season ranked first at the position in overall grade (90.7) while Mike Evans finished the year tied for sixth (85.7)."
Least shockingly, PFF ranked Tampa as having the league’s best-receiving corp. When you have multiple receivers top 1,100 yards, top two tight ends post 770 yards combined, and top two running backs total 954 yards combined, it’s clear they have the best-receiving corp, especially when you throw Gronk into the mix.
On the contrary, the addition of Gronk should give Tampa more of a reason to shop Cameron Brate. However, how effective this receiving corp will be is entirely unknown. Out of all the NFC South teams, Tampa seemingly has the worst situation at quarterback. Carolina was the only other team to change quarterbacks and they upgraded from Kyle Allen/Will Grier to Teddy Bridgewater, an exceptional upgrade.
I’m aware that’s a strong statement, but Tampa parted ways with a quarterback in his fifth season who amassed over 5,000 yards and 30 touchdowns and switched to a quarterback who is entering his 21st season and will be 43 years old by preseason. It’s unknown how Brady will last coming from an offense that is built on short passes and transitioning to a vertical offense.
At 43 years old, surely his arm will diminish as the season rolls on. The Atlanta Falcons may be playing the Buccaneers at the best possible time, Week 15 and 17.
Where do the Atlanta Falcons fit in all of this? Easy. Wherever the Saints are, the Falcons should be the next in line or shortly after. While the Falcons have the NFL’s best overall receiver, Michael Thomas isn’t too far down the list.
Where PFF fails here, they stated the Atlanta Falcons are at 13 because the team falls off after Calvin Ridley. However, almost all teams see a significant drop in talent after the second receiver. Russell Gage was proven he can see 90+ targets in a season and produce at a decent level for a third receiver.
Hurst will have a career season in all statistical categories. And are we ready to write off Todd Gurley? While he did have a considerable down season in 2019, this was also in part to running behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines.
Fans like to give Devonta Freeman a pass for his poor 2019 performance by way of our offensive line, but Gurley put up more yards on the ground, more first downs, and more scores all while running behind an offensive line that was very much worse than that of the Falcons.
Having a solid ground game will open up the passing game tremendously, and give the Atlanta Falcons five solid options in the passing game in 2020.