It's been a tumultuous start to the 2026 season for the Atlanta Falcons. After starting 0-2 largely due to lackluster quarterback play, the Falcons rattled off back-to-back dominant wins before taking an overtime loss to the Ravens, because of aTua Tagovailoa interception.
Despite the disappointing result Sunday night, Atlanta is 2-3 and still in a tight NFC South race with the Panthers. The early portion of the season gives fans the opportunity to see what their team does and doesn't do well. Sometimes early-season production is an accurate indicator; other times, it's a mirage.
The Falcons are a unique case, since they've only had Michael Penix Jr. for three games. The first two games can be set aside when evaluating Atlanta (which fans should be more than happy to do). With that being said, what early-season trends, whether good or bad, are sustainable, and which ones should change?
Early-season Falcons' trends that are and aren't legitimate
Should continue: depth at skill positions
Entering 2026, the Falcons' skill positions were expected to be a strength, and they haven't disappointed. To no one's surprise, Bijan Robinson is still remarkable, and Drake London has been highly productive since Penix returned. It's not just the stars making an impact; Atlanta's depth has started to show up.
Brian Robinson Jr. has proven to be an excellent second option in the backfield, rushing for at least 50 yards in three games. He rattled off three touchdowns in a blowout win over the Saints (shout-out to anyone who accidentally drafted Brian instead of Bijan in fantasy). Robinson has had mostly steady production so far, and with the Falcons' strong interior offensive line, he should continue to do so.
The biggest question for Atlanta's skill positions was the wide receiver depth behind London. Jahan Dotson has done well in that role over the past couple of weeks, with 54 receiving yards against New Orleans and Baltimore. This is where only having Penix for three games comes into play. Once Dotson had his starting QB, he began to pick things up.
There's a good chance this trend doesn't just continue with Robinson and Dotson; it extends to third-round pick Zachariah Branch. Branch has had a fairly slow start to his rookie season, but he did come through with a crucial 23-yard catch on third down in the fourth quarter against the Ravens. Branch is a talented player, and his role in the Falcons' offense should only grow as the season continues.
Shouldn't continue: Falcons league-best run defense through the first four games
Atlanta's run defense was putting up video-game numbers through the first month, holding opponents to 48.3 rushing yards per game. That was the least amount of yards allowed on the ground by a wide margin through Week 4, but the caveat is it came against offenses that have struggled to run the ball.
Each of the Falcons' first four opponents is in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards per game, including Green Bay, which is dead last. The first true test for Atlanta's run defense didn't go well, allowing Baltimore to run for 208 yards, more than the Falcons allowed in their first four games combined.
It doesn't get any easier going forward, with the NFL's best ground game in Chicago coming to town. In fact, four of Atlanta's next five opponents currently rank in the top eight for rushing yards. The Falcons were unable to contain the Ravens' rushing attack even with Lamar Jackson out, meaning they could focus more on stopping the run instead of worrying about Jackson beating them through the air.
Now Atlanta's run defense certainly isn't bad, it wouldn't have been as successful as it was through four games if it was a weakness. With that being said, it isn't an unstoppable force the Falcons can lean on.
We'll see how the unit will respond against Chicago's league-leading rushing attack.
Should continue: offensive success on third down and time of possession
Here's an interesting tidbit about Atlanta's offense: it has the highest third-down conversion rate in the NFL over the past three weeks. When the Falcons have their starting quarterback under center, they've been able to move the chains.
This trend is tied to the impressive depth at the skill positions. Opposing defenses can't just focus on London on passing downs, since Dotson, Branch, and Kyle Pitts can also make plays in key spots. Another stat Atlanta has thrived in is time of possession, being the fourth-best team in the NFL in that department.
There's a couple of reasons why the Falcons should be able to continue controlling the clock. One is the 1-2 punch at running back. Having Bijan is already a huge advantage, but Brian being there as well allows the First-Team All-Pro to be better rested. Atlanta has an elite rushing offense, which is incredibly important for sustaining drives.
Another thing that matters when it comes to sustaining drives is converting on third down, which the Falcons have been great at. Atlanta's dominant rushing attack and depth of pass catchers are sustainable barring injury, so the offense's efficiency on third downs and with time of possession shouldn't slow down any time soon.
Shouldn't continue: Falcons' pass defense struggling to start 2026
All the trends mentioned so far have been positive ones, but a negative area for the Falcons through Week 5 has been their pass defense. Whereas Atlanta's run defense will likely come back down to earth, its counterpart should get better.
The Falcons' pass defense ranks 27th in all of football, which is certainly less than ideal. However, there are a couple of factors that have led to the lack of success in this area. As mentioned earlier, Atlanta's early schedule was filled with teams that couldn't run the ball. They had to rely heavily on their passing game to generate results offensively.
The biggest reason for optimism is the Falcons getting a couple of key pieces back. A.J. Terrell is eligible to return from injured reserve in Week 7 against the 49ers. Terrell suffered a groin injury back in Week 2 against the Panthers. Getting its top cornerback back should bolster Atlanta's secondary.
Getting James Pearce Jr. back from an eight-game suspension will also help the passing defense. Pearce led the team with 10.5 sacks as a rookie, and his return will make it easier for the Falcons to get after opposing quarterbacks. Having the 2025 Defensive Rookie of the Year finalist back, along with Harold Perkins Jr. continuing to emerge as a versatile playmaker, will only help improve a unit that has struggled early in 2026.
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