2009 NFL regular season predictions
Training camp is just under 30 days away so what better time to do a little ranking while we do nothing but wait for the pads to come on.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers : While I try not to just play favorites and give the number one spot to the defending champs I do have to say that I think the Steel curtain does have a good shot to repeat. First off there is Big Ben Roethlisbergerand his ability to manage an offense as good or better than just about any QB in the league right now. Roethlisberger is the perfect player for this offense built around running the ball and not turning it over and he is great when he is called upon to make the throws when needed. Ben will be in the hall of fame someday and he is only in his mid 20’s and already has two championships.
Why they will win: Big Ben is a great player who will always do what is needed to win. (look at last season, the running game fell apart and he had to be a full on passer) The Steelers have a great team built around a really young core of playmakers and a defense that will punish you.
Why they won’t: The achilles heel of this team has been offensive line the last couple of years. Roethlisberger gets hit way too much but somehow they still find a way to win. If this team does not protect the QB or cannot open lanes for Willie Parker or Rashard Mendenhallthey won’t win in such a tough AFC North division.
2. New England Patriots : I have made the mistake of counting these guys out far too long to do it again. This team won 11 games with an unproven back-up QB and an aging defense. If that doesn’t make you a believer out of you I don’t know what will.
Why they will win : Is there any question about who will do it for this team? Tom Brady is the biggest of the big time QB’s in the league right now and is another shoe-in for Canton. Bill Belicheck is the puppet master and seems to pull all of the right strings.
Why they won’t: Any time you have as many players as you do in their mid-thirties as this team does you are going to get the questions about age and injuries asked about you, but what can be said about a team that wins in spite of that a has a system that is just so good that age and draft position don’t seem to matter all that much? It is a scary NFL when the Patriots are firing on all cylinders because there just aren’t that many teams that can match-up with them no matter who seems to play for them.
3. Tennessee Titans : A team that has a cast-off QB a running back who many people passed on due to weight and motivational issues and a defense that for the most part you have never heard of. They won on the strength of a rookie running back (Chris Johnson) and around the block veteran QB in Kerry Collins, but it is this teams defense and an awesome coach (Jeff Fisher) that makes them so good.
Why they will win : They draft solid talent year in and year out, they have great coaching and they are never out of any game.
Why they won’t : The biggest failure in drafting that the Titans have made didn’t look that way at first when they got Vince Young. If this team loses Collins and has to go back to Young the chances for Tennessee to be as strong go way the hell down due to the inaccuracy that is consistently displayed by the University of Texas alum.
4. New York Giants : The Giants have the best defensive line in the league. Period, end of decision. Eli Manning is a solid QB, he isn’t exceptional he isn’t really flashy but he puts the ball where it is supposed to be and something that plagued him early in his career, interceptions continue to decline with each season.
Why will they win: With Eli Mannning you have a shot, Brandon Jacobs is a punishing running back and the defense can stop anyone. This team should be the class of the NFC East this year. IF……….
Why they won’t : The receiver situation is, let’s say shaky at best. No big play Plaxico Burressto keep defenses honest and with that I have a hard time believing that Steve Smith or Dominek Hixon are ready to be number one guys.
5. Indianapolis Colts : The honeymoon is over. Peyton Manning has a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator. So does that mean that Manning will just fade into obscurity? NO. Will he have a hard time adjusting? I don’t think so. Will the Colts win the Superbowl? No, I don’t think so.
Why will they win : Reggie Wayne is the man now. Will he step up to the challenge? Will he be that No. 1 that he appears ready to be? Will the defense stay healthy enough to make the Colts relevant again? These are the questions that need to be answered on the field not here.
Why won’t they: If the house of cards falls apart and the chances are there folks, then this could be the end of the Colts hold over the AFC South for nearly a decade.
6.Carolina Panthers : Can the NFC South division winners from 2008 repeat? They didn’t have a first round pick and two of their first ones were defensive line guys in DE Everette Brown and DT Corvey Irwin.
Why will they win : This team is built with strong defense and another great running back tandem. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are just just amazing athletes and I respect them. Jon Beason is a top middle linebacker and someone who can play the pass as well as the run. WOW!
Why won’t they : The NFC South is the biggest oddball division in football and you just never know what you will get from the other teams and then there is Jake Delhomme, inconsistent one minute and amazing the next. Throw 3 picks and 100 yards or 300 yards and 3 TD’s take your pick.
7. Atlanta Falcons : The Falcons face off against a tougher schedule than they had last year and the bar has been raised. Will the birds rise to the occasion or will they fall apart?
Why they will win: Michael Turner and Matt Ryan are the keys to the offense. Roddy White will be a force this season and the offensive line that loves to keep the QB clean are all back. Add to that great coaching from Mike Smith and a strong front office led by GM Thomas Dimitroff and ownership that is involved in football operations but smart enough to leave the big moves to the guys who know what they are doing.
Why they won’t : The Falcons are a team that rely on coaching and overall team health due to a lack of depth in several key spots on the team, most notably at offensive and defensive line. The schedule is daunting, especially at the beginning of the season with New England, Miami and Carolina in the first 3 weeks it could be a rough start.
8. Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins just killed it last year. The single season turnaround was enormous and I think it will continue. Now while I don’t give the AFC East champions a free pass (honestly I hate them) I do think they have a very talented defense and the running backs are really very good as well. But if the fish do anything here they are going to need to keep Chad Pennington on his feet. Also I would like to see better receivers around him but I have been saying that since 1986.
Why they will win : Miami is coached my Tony Sparano and they have Bill Parcells, nuff’ said. If they can rush the passer and the wildcat is effective they could just surprise people again, but this time by keeping the momentum going.
Why they won’t : The Dolphinsare faced with a divisonthat I feel could explode this year. Terrell Ownes is in Buffalo and the Jets got Rex Ryan to coach (ouch!) the Patriots are always good. But if anything this could be a really interesting ride.
9. Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles are talented and have one of my favorite QB’s in Donovan McNabb. But that is just not enough if your running back is the mother of all fantasy superstars one minute and out of the line-up for 6 weeks another.
Why they will win: Andy Reid is one hell of a coach and his teams are always prepared, it is his ability to get a lot from his players andto overcome his teams inadequacies (like hardly ever having any decent receivers for 5+ years) but McNabb is the key to this team and if he plays well and he usually does they will still be in the hunt.
Why they won’t : I am not sold on Brian Westbrook. If I were the GM and of course I am not ( I would have a cooler place) I would have traded him long ago for someone who can stay healthy. The defense has lost so many of the big names from the NFC Championship teams and I just don’t know how it will be without Brian Dawkins.
10. Baltimore Ravens : The Ravens are a year older and now they no longer have Bart Scott and several other players that were essentially poached by Rex Ryan’s move to the Jets. This team still has talent and the Ravens should still be good although you have to ask yourself when does this team finally come back down to earth?
Why will they win : Well, if you have Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed you have a shot to win any game.
Why they won’t : The offense has Joe Flacco (great name) and Willis McGahee but if these guys get hurt or the offensive line struggles it could be really really rough.
11. Dallas Cowboys : The Cowboys have to win this year. Years of trading draft picks away and getting under performing players has got to catch up with them right?
Why they will win: Jason Witten just may be the best all around TE in the NFL right now for my money and I believe that DeMarcus Ware is the best pass rusher that nobody knows in the game right now. If these two guys play to their potential (which they always do) but no one else improves then we are still going to see a Dallas team that under performs.
Why they won’t : It is simple they don’t have good coaching. This team has proven that they need someone to snap the reins and Wade Phillips isn’t that kind of guy. Jason Garrett proved to be a lame duck O-coordinator in 2008 and will need to improve quickly if he is to take his assumed throne once Phillips is gone. Oh and can I please see some production from Roy Williams?(WR) Because he couldn’t seem to get Romo to even look his way half the time.
12. Minnesota Vikings : Brett Favre can go to hell for all I care. They have Adrian Peterson and they have Chester Taylor in their backfield that is like having Mickey Mantle on deck with Babe Ruthbatting. OK maybe they aren’t that great but they are pretty darned good.
Why they will win: The Vikings have a really good defense (we all know that) they have great running backs (that too) and their offensive line will stop a tomahawk missile. So why aren’t they higher on the list because this is my list and until they have Favre on the roster and he isn’t throwing 22 picks, then they still have Tavaris Jackson.
Why they won’t : Tavaris Jackson.
13. Arizona Cardinals : The Cardinals had a great season last year but it is time to come to terms with reality. The Cards do not run the ball well enough. Kurt Warner is a great QB and he proved it last year. But the match-up of the two of the worst rushing teams in the league in the Superbowl won’t happen again.
Why they will win? : Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. What else needs to be said?
Why Won’t they : The defense is improved and not a complete joke, but they certainly are not elite by any standard. I would like to see them win and the NFC West just might be bad enough for them to wear it again.
14. Chicago Bears : They got a QB. For the first time in their storied history they got a QB… now what? Well they look pretty good on the offensive side of the ball. The running back might just be a monster in Matt Forte and the receiving corps might not be as bad as people think.
Why will they win : Did I mention that they had Jay Cutler? The guy will give defenses to consider now bwfore they try and stuff 8 guys in the box. The Bears are one of those teams that in my opinion could really surprise people, especially with the schedule they have. Cakewalk comes to mind.
Why they won’t : The receiving corps could just fall flat, but Brandon Lloyd has good hands and might b worth a flier in fantasy. Just a little thought for you all out there.
15. Seattle Seahawks : This just might be too high a ranking for a team that drafted so high just a few months ago but I have a feeling that this team will rebound.
Why they will win : The ‘Hawks have a good team but any running back corp that is headlined by Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett you are kind of in trouble. The defense laid an egg last year and Patrick Kearney needs to come back strong.
Why they lose : Take everything I just listed up there and bring it down here.
16. Houston Texans: The Texans are a chic pick to go to the playoffs and they have been for sometime. I agree that Andre Smith is an incredible receiver but I am not sold on Matt Schaub and that is why this team is still in the middle of the pack somewhere around 8 or 9 wins.
Why they will win : Well they had a really good draft if you ask me and I love DeMeco Ryans just like the next guy, but I cannot believe that this team will be better than Tennessee or Indy in this season.
Why they won’t : Tennessee and Indy hello!
17. New Orleans Saints : This time it’s personal! Drew Brees is a great QB. Period! end of story, bit this team still is not working out. You know why? They are built with lots of speed and flash and offense but the defense while being improved is still not ready in my opinion.
Why do they win : The Defense will be the key to the Saints here. The Offense will score points, they would have a hard time not scoring.
Why do they not : Reggie Bush’s yards from scrimmage have increased from year to year but the guy isn’t getting them by running the ball, he is getting them with receiving yards out of the backfield. If you can contain Bush and make Brees throw the ball out wide you can win.
18. San Diego Chargers : San Diego is the first entry of any team in this list from the AFC West and you know what? this could be too high. The Chargers aren’t so much a bad team as they tend to play down to their opposition.
Why they win : Ladanian Tomlinsonwill continue to be a good running back and the defense will do what it needs to do but this team doesn’t do anything if Phillip Rivers isn’t playing well or is off the field.
Why they won’t : There isn’t much buzz about this team, and for good reason. Their draft was nothing special and the team just doesn’t seem to have a real identity as of this posting.
19. New York Jets: If you can find a team that has changed more in this off season then I would love to hear it. A new team saviour in Mark “dirty” Sanchez, Rex Ryan picked apart his former team’s D to get Bart Scott and a bunch of other guys. The thing that makes me worry about this team here is that there is just so much changing that I think they might take a year to really hit their stride but I would look for this team to be strong and legitimate contenders in a year or two. Falcons-Jets Superbowl in 2011 is a very real possibility.
Why they win: If Sanchez starts, and I think that will happen sooner rather than later and has a good season this team could be a wildcard contender this year. But, if he or that all new D struggles then it could be a long year with so much talent in the AFC East this year.
Why they don’t: Rex Ryan will make this defense a monster, but Rome wasn’t built in a day and a rookie QB and an inconsistent Thomas Jones can be a killer in 2009.
20. Washington Redskins : When you take tons of money and throw it at guys like DeAngelo Hall and Albert Haynesworth you are playing with fire. First off this is the same Hall that was so annoying to the Raiders they threw him off the team in the first year for refusing to play hard. Then Haynesworth is the ultimate question mark, He got paid after a huge year in 2008. Is there fire in “Big” Al’s belly or is he going to just go through the motions?
Why they win : There is talent on that defense, the question is whether or not there is desire enough to play in what is always a tough division and actually win some games.
Why they won’t: Jason Campbell is the man in charge of that offense, and while he doesn’t throw bad balls and hardly ever throws an interception, there isn’t any big plays to be had. Now if it is the O-line not giving him time that is understandable but I don’t see that being an issue. Campbell will be on the hot seat all year and will need to take some shots down field to score some points if he is going to keep his job.
21. San Francisco 49ers : Please stop telling me that this team will challenge for the NFC west this year, it won’t happen and can’t happen when you have an O-line this bad and your computer is Shaun Hill.
Why they win : Michael Crabtree will be good, very good if he plays like he did in college, but Frank Gore cannot be the only big play guy on this team because he just isn’t that type of elite back who can win games on his own.
Why they don’t : The defense is improving and Patrick Willis is a freak of nature human and a tackling machine, but where are the other guys to play alongside of? who will put the fear into their opponents on this team? Mike Singletary will turn this defense around but not this year.
22. Buffalo Bills : When I look at this team I think a few things right off the bat. First off, I think they should be better, they have talent at the skill positions, the O-line is decent and the defense has some good players so why haven’t they put it together? The answer is coaching!
Why they win : Talent is one thing but if you can’t do anything to get it to work for you then you are spinning your wheels for 17 weeks.
Why they won’t : Dick Jauron just doesn’t have the temperament for this team anymore. He has been there far too long with nothing to show for it but 7-9 seasons every year. While I respect the ownership for not pulling the plug I can’t see the situation improving dramatically.
23. Tampa Bay Buccanneers: Welcome to the basement of the NFC South, where if they were in the AFC/NFC West they could take the division. The thing that strikes me is that the Bucs just pulled all the plugs at once. Players and coaches alike were thrown on the fire and the team is rebuilding from scratch. They drafted well they have a good O-Line so they won’t be in the depths of the swamp for too long.
Why they win : If, and this is a big IF. But if Raheem Morris can make these guys play way beyond their talent level and steal a couple of games from their NFC South rivals they could salvage the season at about 8-8.
Why they won’t : This team is starting from ground zero here. There is no shame to rebuild as long as they rebuild with a purpose and with this teams ownership I don’t see that being an issue.
24. Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers is the real deal folks. He plays hard and he is smart. This team could win some games if they were in another division but with the Vikings and the Bears looking to be the likely titans of this division I would say a 3rd place finish around 7-9 is realistic.
Why they win : Rodgers has very good receivers on either side of him and with that arm he can win some games. But the the running game just isn’t stable enough and I doubt that anyone can sustain drives enough to win unless you are the Cardinals.
Why they won’t : Running the ball is just too important in the NFL and with the good defenses the Pack will face in the NFC North you just won’t be able to hang with the likes of Peterson or Forte.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars : This team needs to rebuild. They aren’t in that mode and I just don’t see why. They have Maurice Jones-Drew and that is about it. The way I see it this team needs to just lie dormant and rebuild, get a better QB because David Gerrard is not the long term answer and maybe, just maybe think about getting a good receiver.
Why they win : Jones-Drew would have to score on every possession. They just don’t have enough weapons at this time.
Why they don’t : The Defense is middle of the road and their draft didn’t look to be that great from my perspective.
26. Denver Broncos : Remember when this team was a model franchise? Remember when it looked like this team was run by management and not by angry little kids? Do you remember the time…. (we miss you Michael Jackson)
Why they win : This team is coming apart at the seams right now. But they do have a talented and young O-line that could deliver another 1,000 yard rusher from anywhere. They have Kyle Ortonas the de facto no.1 QB and now Brandon Marshall says he hates the city and wants out. (For the record, I grew up in Denver and I can’t say I blame him, any city that has a strict 55 mph speed limit on the freeways has something wrong with them. )
Why they won’t: They have a bunch of older veterans on defense and if the injury bug hit them at all it could be a bloodbath.
27. Oakland Raiders : This team is the same ‘ol song and dance every year. Another weird draft (this years took the cake) another losing season racking up more speed and more talent. A word to Mr. Al Davis, this is football not a track meet. The second you realize that speed is not the only thing you need the sooner you just might win more than 5 games a season.
Why they will win : They have speed, they have two really good running backs and a secondary that is pretty damned good.
Why they won’t : The front seven can’t pressure a girl scout to give up her lunch money, let alone make a QB worry.
28. Cleveland Browns: The Browns have Mangini…. Sorry. I like Derek Anderson when he is upright and Brady Quinn is a big kid who just might be great or just another kid with a bad haircut. Braylon Edwards is a talented receiver but this team just can’t catch a break, and for good reason, they are poorly managed.
Why the win : Well, first off the Pittsburgh would have to blow up and Baltimore would have to fall apart. and I don’t see those things happening.
Why the don’t: Mangini will attempt to build this team in his image and it will take a while. He has adopted the previous mistakes of the last administration and just like Obama it might take a while to right the ship.
29. Cincinnati Bengals : They had a great draft but to quote the words of the Harvey Keitel from Pulp Fiction: “Let’s not go sucking each other’s ****s just yet” This team lost T.J. Whoseyomomma to the Emerald City and that O-line is still a work in progress.
Why they win : The draft picks all pan out and the defense plays… DEFENSE!
Why they lose : Because they are the Bengals people!
30. Kansas City Chiefs : Their draft was good and they have a good young core of players to build around. The division they play in is not that tough and I am not going to say that this team will be on their backs for much longer. The question is Matt Cassel , was he a diamond in the rough or just a product of a great system in New England? We will find out this year.
Why they win: This team has talent, no question about it. They will be a better team in the future and for all I know the future may be now.
Why they don’t : The Chiefs still don’t seem like they have the pieces or the experience quite yet to make a move, but their division just might be bad enough to surprise some people.
31. Detroit Lions : The battle for who sucks worse is a tough one but I like what the Lions did in their draft and I think they win 3 games this year.
Why they win: They got some good players to build around. The nucleus is there folks now let’s see what we can do.
Why they don’t : This team went 0-16 last year, if it happens again it isn’t that shocking.
32. St. Louis Rams : The Rams are just a joke man, a big sad blue and gold colored joke with a good running back that just can’t catch a break.
Why they win : HA!
Why they won’t : Their offense is so anemic it is really hard to watch.