Atlanta Falcons: Fast start is great, but there is a lot of work to do
This was as good a start as any of us could have expected for the Atlanta Falcons, and far better than many predicted. Finishing the first quarter of the season undefeated is an incredible achievement for Dan Quinn, under a year after this team wrapped up the 2014 season with a 6-10 record.
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But it’s important not to get carried away. Win or lose in September, the Falcons’ season will be defined in December. Between now and then, it’s about staying in playoff contention. From that point, it’s about getting hot ahead of the postseason.
Let’s go back in time and look at each 2014 division winner and how they started the season.
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What stands out is that not one of last season’s division winners started 4-0, and five of them started slowly at 2-2. This is a reminder not to write teams off too early in the season. Key for all of those teams was the December form. All eight won at least three out of their final four.
The last two times the Falcons started 4-0, they reached the NFC Championship Game. But early season success isn’t the formula to a deep postseason run, winning in December is.
The Patriots lost their final game to the Bills, but rested Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski because the AFC’s top seed was already wrapped up. At full strength, they too could have rolled through December at 4-0.
You have to look no further than the 2014 Carolina Panthers to highlight the importance of getting hot late in the season. Now, I wouldn’t recommend following their 3-4-1 start blueprint, but entering December they were an absolute mess. Four consecutive wins later and they are, well still a mess, but division champions.
As it happened, they would go onto to beat the Cardinals and advance to the Divisional Round. A team with just three wins before December reached the NFC’s final four.
That’s not to say fast starts are a bad thing, of course. Far from it. The last two times the Falcons started 4-0, they reached the NFC Championship Game. But early season success isn’t the formula to a deep postseason run, winning in December is.
Remember the 2012 Broncos? After Week 5, they sat precariously at 2-3. Their next loss was in the Divisional Round of the playoffs after racking up 11 straight. That same year, the Patriots fell to 3-3 after six games and looked in trouble, but 10 wins from their next 11 put them in the AFC Championship Game.
Now the Falcons deserve a ton of credit; what Dan Quinn has produced in the first quarter of the season is remarkable. But it’s important not to get carried away.
A fast start is great, but December will define this season.