Atlanta Falcons: What is Devonta Freeman worth?

The Atlanta Falcons would like to be able to work out a contract extension with running back Devonta Freeman but how much will that cost them?

Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman is entering the final year of his deal with the team and is ready to start talking about a new deal. It’s understandable given that his final year of his rookie deal will pay him $1.84 million, which is way less than his worth coming off a second-straight season with over 1,000 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns.

General manager Thomas Dimitroff has made no secret that the team wants to get something done. In a statement over the offseason he all but guaranteed the Falcons will keep the talented running back in Atlanta.

"“We will address this,” Dimitroff said during the offseasons at the annual league meeting in Phoenix according to Alex Marvez of Sporting News. “When you look at our history, we address these situations going into training camp. I’m throwing that out there as a general timeline. I don’t know when that exactly will be, but I’m confident that something can get wrapped up and he’s going to be part of us for years to come.”"

The question that comes up though is, what will it cost the team? For the answer to that let’s look around the league at recent signings of top running backs:

DeMarco Murray: Five-year deal worth $42 million — $21 million guaranteed in 2015
Doug Martin: Five-year $35.75 million — $15 million guaranteed in 2016
Lamar Miller: Four-year $26 million — $14 million guaranteed in 2016

While the numbers usually fluctuate, these three signings give the Falcons something to work with. Obviously Murray’s deal was somewhat inflated given he left the Dallas Cowboys for a divisional rival in the Philadelphia Eagles and then got traded to the Tennessee Titans after underperforming.

Martin also underperformed in the first year under his deal, and there are questions about whether or not the team will keep him much longer in Tampa Bay. Miller may have been the only one who did well in his first season under the new deal.

Of course re-signing running backs is difficult. With the above examples, two of the three look to be bad deals. Atlanta will have to use the contracts as springboards for a deal, but they can’t over-invest in a position that is so fragile thanks to the abuse they take.

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Best Contract Estimate:

Based on the deals made in the past, a fair contract extension for Devonta Freeman and the Falcons would be a five-year, $36.75 million deal with $16 million in guaranteed money, but the key will be making sure that there’s a way out similar to Bucs deal with Martin just in case Freeman has similar issues with injuries or a decline thanks to his punishing style.