Are the Falcons a 2nd half of the season team under Dan Quinn?

Are the Atlanta Falcons a second-half team?

The Falcons have been very successful under Dan Quinn these, now 4 years. Quinn owns a 10-8 record against the NFC South, 24-14 record against the entire NFC and a 30-21 overall record. He is also 3-2 in the playoffs to include an NFC Championship, not bad at all. The secret to Quinn’s success has been how well his teams have played in the 2nd half of the season vs the 1st half. Below are some simple tables I have created that illustrate what I mean, but first let’s talk about the offense.

In 2015, the Falcons were in a transition phase as most of what Mike Smith had done was in the process of being replaced by “Quinn’s guys”. Quinn hired young offensive mind Kyle Shanahan from the Cleveland Browns and retained most of the offensive pieces that were already on the roster from Smith. The first year under Quinn started out great, as the team raced out to a 5-0 start but ended on a downward spiral as the team finished 8-8. Part of the issue that year stemmed from injuries and inconsistent play on the offensive line, particularly at the center position. The Falcons simply could not run the ball the 2nd half of 2015 as evident by only scoring 2 rushing touchdowns over the last 8 games as their points per game dropped from 27.6 to 16.2 which is 2 entire possessions less worth of points. The Falcons also had a very high number of giveaways (14 in the 1st half and 16 in the 2nd half).

In 2016, the Falcons were able to optimize the entire offense by spreading the ball around to many different receivers (13 players caught touchdown passes). The offense that year was a machine as it got stronger as the season progressed. The offense had 11 giveaways the entire regular season which ranked number 1 in the league. Nothing more needs to be said about this offense.

2017 brought some big changes to the Falcons. Shanahan was hired as the San Francisco 49er’s new head coach and Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian was hired as the Falcons new offensive coordinator. The transition from Shanahan to Sarkisian was rough, as he basically had to learn the entire offense on the fly. This along with untimely drops (30 – league high)  and poor execution upfront forced the offense to play very basic and vanilla which tipped a lot of defense as to what the Falcons were going to do. We can talk about red zone scoring and other reasons why the offense didn’t perform at its best the bigger issue was the teams inability to run the ball effectively in certain looks limited the offense. In 2015, Shanahan could at least punch the ball into the end zone with the run, Sarkisian’s offense couldn’t do that effectively. With all of the negativity around Sarkisian and the offense, overshadowed some positives and that were the improvements in passing game and decreasing the amount of giveaways from 10 in the 1st half to 8 in the 2nd half. Ultimately though the offense wasn’t consistent enough to propel the team pass the eventual champion Philadelphia Eagles in the playoffs.

Fast forward to now and the offense is finally showing signs of its 2016 self. The one thing that plagued Sarkisian’s offense in the red  zone has seen a vast improvement as the Falcons are now 6 for 3 in the red zone with 2 passing touchdowns, 3 rushing touchdowns and 1 field goal in 2 games. Please see my red zone breakdown article https://bloggingdirty.com/2018/09/12/could-a-lack-of-or-change-in-identity-be-at-the-root-of-the-falcons-red-zone-woes/.

*Passing and Rushing are in yards per game, 3rdDwn% (3rd down offense), SACK (Sacks allowed), GW (Giveaways), TR (Team Record)

We discussed the offense above, now its time for the defense. Each year under Quinn the defense has gotten better. In 2015, the defense was composed of mainly veteran players due to the lack of depth left over from the Smith days.

In 2016 most of those players were released in favor of young guys such as Deion Jones, Keanu Neal and De’Vondre Campbell. The transition from 2015 to 2016 was rough as the defense allowed nearly 30 points per game in the 1st half of the season. This was overshadowed by just how good the offense was, in that the team could simply out score everyone it faced. In the 2nd half of the season the defense finally came together as it allowed 7 fewer points per game over the final  8 weeks and increased the amount of takeaways from 8 in the first 8 games to 14 in second 8 games.

In 2017 the defense was at its best in years as it allowed barely  over 21 points per game in the 1st half of the season. In the 2nd half of the season the defense tightened up even more,  giving up only 17.9 points per game. The biggest change in the defense were the amount of takeaways which went from 6 in the 1st half of the season to 10 over the 2nd half of the season. The team was also able to get to opposing quarterbacks more over the 2nd half of the season. In the playoffs the defense allowed a mind-blowing 14 points per game. That was truly a championship level defense.

In 2018, the defense is off to a slow but solid start as its giving up on 21 points per game. The major issue with the defense now are more related to injuries. Pro Bowl strong safety Keanu Neal is on injured reserves and is done for the season after 1 game. Pro Bowl linebacker Deion Jones is on short-term injured reserves and won’t be able to return until week 10. Right now similar to 2016, the Falcons defense is faced with adversity as young players are having to step up due to injuries, but if history tells us anything, it’s that these guys will begin to get it around the 2nd half of the season and with one of their best players coming back from injury, this unit could be very dangerous later on in the season. Right now this defense is on pace to be the best Quinn has ever fielded and that’s scary to imagine when you consider one of its best players is out for most of the season.

*Passing and rushing are in yards per game, SACK (Defensive Sacks), 3rdDwn% (Opponent 3rd down offense allowed), TO (Takeaways), TR (Team Record)

To  answer the main question. This is definitely a 2nd half of the season team. What we are seeing right now is the not the true identity of the Falcons on both sides of the ball. I’ll check back in a few weeks to see how things are going but history has taught us that we haven’t seen this club at its best yet.