How Atlanta Falcons could still end up with top-5 draft pick

The Atlanta Falcons could still end up with top-5 draft pick

The Atlanta Falcons enter Week 14 with a 4-8 record looking to potentially either win a game that will likely prove to be meaningless or lose a game that will give them better draft stock.

The Falcons travel over to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers this weekend and there’s an intriguing dilemma as we head down the stretch of the season: Does Atlanta tank for a better place in the draft or win games that likely won’t lead to them making it to the postseason?

It’s the ultimate place of purgatory for Atlanta Falcons fans.

As we head into Week 14, the Falcons would currently be No. 8 in the 2021 NFL Draft if the season ended today. That being said, we’ve still got four games left and a lot can be determined in those four final contests.

If the Atlanta Falcons were to fall just right, they’d have a perfect opportunity to end up with a top-5 pick

The Falcons are currently behind a few teams that could make runs late in the season. The Panthers, Eagles, Chargers, Cowboys and Cincinnati are all within 1.5 games of the Falcons catching them and so it only takes a couple of losses and an unexpected win to turn things around.

According to ESPN’s FPI, the Falcons have an average draft position of 8.4 and they have a 75.4 percent chance of earning a top-10 pick. For top-5? They’ve got a 15.9 percent chance.

If Atlanta was to go 1-3 in the last four games, that would finish the year with a 5-11 record. Historically, that would put them right around 5-9.

If the Falcons were to lose out, though, and finish 4-12. Well, that puts them historically right in that 4-7 range and you’d see the percentage move up exponentially. We all know that the Jets and Jaguars are going to be No. 1 and No. 2, but the rest of those spots (3-10) are up in the air in a big way.

It will be interesting to see how this team finishes out the season and where their draft standing ends up when it’s all said and done.