The Atlanta Falcons should trade for Jordan Love

A “succession plan” is being publicly mooted by the Atlanta Falcons ownership. Does the next in line to the quarterback throne already exist within the NFL?

“At some point, there will be a sunset for him”, Arthur Blank said, in the build-up to Super Bowl LVI, “but exactly when that is I really can’t tell you because I really don’t know.” He was, of course, talking about the Falcons’ starting quarterback of the past 14 seasons. Matt Ryan has solely held that distinction across three head coaches and two general managers. But, at 37 years old, the amount of road left for Ryan in the NFL is quickly coming to an end.

The Falcons had the opportunity to draft a “succession plan” in 2021. They didn’t take that route, of course, and so, we head into 2022 in a very similar situation as they did last season. The only differences are that the Falcons have a lower draft pick, and a shallower pool of quarterback talent to select from. Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis might well have excellent NFL careers. But it’s difficult to argue that either are comparable to Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields, for example. So, what now?

Succession line in the Midwest

You may recall, a couple of years ago, another team was faced with this exact question. Fresh off a campaign that took the Packers to the brink of a return to the Super Bowl, Green Bay opted to secure their future. Given the transition from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers, they attempted to recreate the process that gave them nearly 30 years of all-pro level quarterback play. They drafted Jordan Love; a quarterback with a cannon for an arm, but with a lot of mental work required to reach the lofty highs he was capable of reaching.

The plan was straightforward; give Love a couple of years to adjust to the professional game, and hand him the keys from there. I’m not sure anyone in the Green Bay setup could have foreseen Aaron Rodgers enjoying back-to-back MVP level seasons. This was the offseason that the change was due to take place. Instead, we’re seeing reports that the Packers are about to push all their chips into the center of the table to keep Rodgers around.

We’ve just seen a team win the Super Bowl by going “all-in”, so it certainly makes sense for Green Bay to try that method. It’s not great for Jordan Love, who’s about to enter the third season of his career with a single start to his name. What Love needs is a fresh start. That’s where the Atlanta Falcons come in.

Embracing the rebuild

At the time of writing, per sportrac, Matt Ryan is slated to count for ~$48mil against the salary cap in 2022. In 2023, his cap hit stands at ~$43mil. However, his dead cap hit will only be ~$15mil. If nothing changes between now and the start of the 2023 season, the Falcons can cut Ryan, and save just shy of $30mil. If I were a gambling man, I would put a fistful of dollars on the Falcons moving on from Ryan in 2023. If the Falcons are aware they need a succession plan, having a guy to step in for 2023 is very valuable.

Jordan Love has spent the first two seasons of his career being around, learning from, and playing with one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the position. Regardless of what sort of teacher Aaron Rodgers might be, that sort of exposure must count for something. He is undoubtedly in a better place to start in the NFL than he ever was heading into the 2020 NFL draft. His single start in 2021 wouldn’t give you that impression, however, as Love managed a single touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs. He needs more time.

Regardless of which side of the Matt Ryan fence you occupy, we can all agree that this offense isn’t currently built for an inexperienced quarterback. The offensive line is giving up an obscene level of pressure, and there are question marks in every skill position. That isn’t an environment that will nurture talent in the quarterback position. You’re better off asking Ryan to deal with that situation for another season, while Fontenot and Smith try to fix the rest of the team.

A small price to pay

What that season would give Love is more time. A season to get to grips with Arthur Smith’s offense, and another to settle into the NFL, should be enough for him to be an efficient starter. It would also give the Falcons a season to assess what they have, and whether they feel comfortable triggering his 5th-year option, something some teams didn’t consider when faced with a similar situation.

If the Packers are going to go “all-in” in 2022, something they need more than anything is money. Rodgers is set to cost Green Bay ~$46mil, and the Packers are currently slated to enter the 2022 season ~$50mil over the cap. That isn’t good. When you factor in that they’re likely to try for Davante Adams also, they need cash. Moving on from the first-round contract Love is on can only help the Packers. That fact would also give the Falcons leverage. If the Falcons are capable of obtaining a first-round talent for a late second/early third-day draft pick, that can only be good business.

Could it work?

There’s no guarantee that Love pans out as the future of any franchise, of course. But, with everything discussed in hand, the positives outweigh the negatives. Most importantly, if, after a season of backing up Matt Ryan, the coaching staff simply isn’t confident Love can step in, they aren’t tied to him for 4 or 5 years. A quarterback could very much be on the cards for the Falcons again in 2023 or 2024, without a rookie contract, or a sunk cost fallacy, weighing them down.

The Falcons have enjoyed a high level of quarterback play for the majority of the past quarter of the decade. Unlike with the Packers, that was very much not by design. They got lucky, and you cannot rely on luck to land a franchise player for the third time in a row. If you want to be successful in the NFL, you need to be consistent, and Jordan Love could represent the Falcons’ best shot at that consistency.

If nothing else, how good would it feel to see a cast-off Packers QB succeed in Atlanta, in the same manner the Packers enjoyed Brett Favre?