Blueprint to how the Atlanta Falcons can make the playoffs

Everyone is writing off the Atlanta Falcons in 2022, at least everyone but the people within the organization and the fans of the team.

Outsiders look and see a team that has lost players like Julio Jones, Matt Ryan, and Foye Oluokun over the past two years and they immediately write them off as being one of the worst teams in the league, some even say they are the worst team. That is simply untrue but the only way to silence them is by making the playoffs, so which teams do they need to beat to make the postseason?

Which teams do the Atlanta Falcons have to beat to make the NFL Playoffs?

We are going to try and put together a blueprint for how the Falcons can make the playoffs this season.

You might be asking how this is going to be done, well, first we will separate each one of the Falcons’ opponents into four different categories; teams they should beat, teams they can beat who might have a slight advantage, teams they have a shot at beating, and teams they have almost no shot at beating.

Then from there, we will look at which of those categories the Falcons must sweep in order to have a high chance of making the playoffs.

First, we must note that everyone has their own opinions on each team in the NFL, these are based on an opinion, not fact, so they might rival your own opinion. Do not get too riled up if you think a team should be in another category, much of this is based on last year’s performances as well as expectations for this upcoming season.

Let’s start by placing each of the Falcons’ opponents into one of the four categories.

Teams the Falcons should beat:

• Chicago Bears
• Carolina Panthers (2 games)
• Seattle Seahawks
• Washington Commanders

Teams the Falcons can beat:

• New Orleans Saints (2 games)
• Pittsburgh Steelers
• Cleveland Browns

Teams the Falcons have a shot at beating:

• Arizona Cardinals
• Baltimore Ravens
• San Francisco 49ers

Teams the Falcons won’t beat in all likelihood:

• Los Angeles Chargers
• Cincinnati Bengals
• Los Angeles Rams
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2 games)

These are ranked in order from top to bottom of perceived easiest to hardest matchups for the Atlanta Falcons, so the Bears are the easiest, and the Buccaneers are the toughest.

Now for a really quick explanation as to why each of these teams was placed where they were. Bears, Panthers, Seahawks, and Commanders all have weak rosters and quarterback question marks.

Saints, Steelers, and Browns all have decent rosters but have uncertainty or inconsistency with their quarterbacks. This is also assuming that Deshaun Watson’s suspension keeps him out of the Falcons, Browns matchup.

The Cardinals and Ravens have established quarterbacks but are not in the elite tier quite yet due to their unproven team, while the 49ers will be rolling with a young QB with a complete team around him.

And finally, the Chargers, Bengals, Rams, and Buccaneers all have elite rosters and excellent quarterbacks. The Chargers are more of a projection, however.

Now let’s get to what the Falcons must do to secure a spot in the playoffs.

Looking at which games the Falcons must win to make the playoffs

For this, we will take each of the categories, from easiest to hardest, and find out where the Atlanta Falcons start having a shot to make the playoffs by comparing their projected record to the NFL’s playoff odds chart.

First, we will be starting with the Falcons beating the teams they should beat while losing the rest of the games:

• Record: 5-12 (beat Bears, Panthers x2, Seahawks, Commanders)
• Playoff odds: <1%

If the Falcons beat the teams they should as well as the ones they can beat:

• Record: 9-8 (Bears, Panthers x2, Seahawks, Commanders, Saints x2, Steelers, Browns)
• Playoff odds: 50%

If the Falcons beat the teams they should, teams they can, and teams they have a shot at:

• Record: 12-5 (Bears, Panthers x2, Seahawks, Commanders, Saints x2, Steelers, Browns, Cardinals, Ravens, 49ers)
• Playoff odds: 100%

And then obviously if the Falcons beat every team their playoff chances are still going to be at 100%.

So, realistically Atlanta could beat the teams they are better than and then beat the teams they might have a slight disadvantage against, and it would give them a 50/50 shot at the playoffs. If you add one more win on to that then the odds skyrocket to 91%.

However, there is a reason they play the games, for all we know the Falcons could sweep all of their elite opponents but lose to all the weaker ones.

All of these teams are going to look much different this season than last season, for all we know Justin Fields could lead the Bears to a Super Bowl victory.

Not to mention, it is hard to beat a team twice in one year. The odds that the Falcons will beat the Saints and Panthers a combined four times are pretty low.

This is just an outline of what the Falcons’ playoff hopes look like and what they need to do to make it to the postseason. The chances are there, but will they get it done?