The Atlanta Falcons are coming off of two disappointing losses in the last two weeks, and things aren't going to get any easier in Week 7. Raheem Morris is set to make his return to Mercedes-Benz Stadium and you just know Falcons fans want to spoil his emotional afternoon.
The Falcons are set to host a 6-0 49ers team this afternoon which ranks as one of the most productive offenses in the league to this point at second place in offensive efficiency according to SumerSports, fourth in red-zone efficiency, and first in third- down conversion rate at 50%.
This is a juggernaut of a team who's MVP-caliber quarterback Brock Purdy looks to continue on it's long winning streak. The Falcons certainly have a task on their hands battling against such a talented opponent, and even despite all of the injury concerns for the Niners (and both teams), these key matchups could determine the result of the game.
1. Tommy Rees vs. Himself
The Falcons face yet another situation where their offensive identity is being questioned and this time it's lack of production on the ground. Though it's not as if they're failing when they run. Atlanta's averaging the fourth-most rushing yards per game, but the problem lies in attempts. The Falcons were averaging over 30 touches a game Weeks 1-4 only to drop to 26 in the loss to the Ravens, then a dismal 12 totes in Week 6 after going down early against the Bears.
The players admit they're a run first team, and the coaches, such offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, have come out and said running is their priority. Atlanta now faces a team they can prove that on. Base level the 49ers, who rank seventh against the run, may look like a lockdown front but the devils in the details. San Francisco has the fifth-worst run stuff rate at 16.9% and yards before contact allowed at 1.5 yards.
This means they get beat on the line, and paired with their 43.1 percent light box rate, the Dirty Birds may be able to find early down success in the run game. This will define the game for Atlanta. The ability to enforce their will on a team in the run game to control the clock and create more opportunities in the passing game.
And that all starts with Rees calling plays more in line with where this team has defined its identity.
2. Michael Penix Jr. vs. the pocket and pressure
Michael Penix Jr. with a clean pocket looks like one of the best to do it; 78% completions for 9.3 an attempt and five touchdowns according to Warren Sharp. Like most quarterbacks in the league Michael Penix Jr. struggles against pressure. He turns from an elite talent to a subpar quarterback; 31% completion rate and 22% sack rate when facing direct pressure.
This is combined with a 29% pressure to sack ratio which ranks second worst in the league. Some quote previous seasons, saying that he'll level out in time but no matter the case hopefully the leveling out is soon for Atlanta. The 49ers boast a 40% pressure rate, meaning Penix is in danger if he can't maneuver the pocket and work with less pressure.
It also falls on coaching, again leaning on early runs while spreading the defense out in 11 and 12 personnel to create space. With concepts like "dagger" and deeper "mesh" plays the Falcons could easily keep Penix safe and allow for easier throwing lanes while staying in front of the sticks against this match zone defense.
And another idea came from Falcons legend Roddy White, who said to increase the tempo and get the ball out quickly to counteract the effects of the blitz.
3. Kendal Daniels vs. Christian McCaffrey
Rookie linebacker Kendal Daniels is coming off a gruesome-looking neck injury last week against the Chicago Bears, but by a miracle, the fourth-round draft pick out of Oklahoma has recovered in less than a week and will be starting this game as the green dot for Atlanta's defense.
He's truly that stunning exciting rookie that any fan would cherish. He's already demanded an over 50% snap share and 29 tackles including 1 sack. Now he faces his biggest test, leading this Falcons defense against Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers offense.
Although the 49ers only average 13 rushes a game with McCaffrey, due to injuries to receivers; Mike Evans, and Deebo Samuel Sr. the 49ers may look to lean on their star back.
With that being said Kendal Daniels has been exceptional in gap coverage and play recognition, even with four missed tackles per PFF, he's blown up screens, and short routes with explosiveness and gotten to the ball carrier with efficiency. He'll have to solidify that tackling and plug gaps to punish the 49ers in order to force them to live through the pass, behind the sticks.
4. Falcons' secondary vs. George Kittle
It's National Tight Ends Day not only for Kyle Pitts but Kittle--the original creator--as well. Due to injuries to 49ers receivers the Falcons not only have to deal with the wrath of Christian McCaffrey but also George Kittle. Although he was practically a non-factor last year against Atlanta, the Falcons will more than likely see more from him this Sunday.
The Falcons are a team that now ranks middle of the pack at 11th in fantasy points allowed against tight ends. However, they gave up 66 yards and a touchdown to Colston Loveland last week. The Falcons will need to continue to put four-man pressure on Purdy to get more bodies in the secondary to bear down on George Kittle, treating him as the 49ers' primary weapon without Evans and Deebo.
Matching Kittle and while using their unique ability to attack the catch, can stifle intermediate completions. The odds may not be in the Falcons favor but this will be a huge key to how the Falcons perform against this 49ers offense.
Thankfully A.J. Terrell has been activated off IR and will be back for this one.
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