The Atlanta Falcons will either win the NFC South or they are going to be sitting at home in the second week of January. Yes, the Falcons could still find a way into the wildcard race with back-to-back losses by Washington and winning out the rest of the way. However, winning out will net them the NFC South crown making what happens to the Commanders in the final week of the season meaningless.
Atlanta's only path into the playoffs is matching Tampa's record the rest of the way. If they can match the Bucs results in the final two weeks, it doesn't matter what else happens they will be hosting a wildcard game in Atlanta. Their biggest hurdle in doing so will be their former head coach Dan Quinn and the Washington Commanders.
Atlanta's only path into the playoffs is holding off Tampa to win the NFC South
Beating the Commanders could lock up the division for the Falcons if Tampa loses to the Carolina Panthers early in the day. On the flip side, if the Bucs beat the Panthers it becomes a must-win situation for Atlanta. In reality, it is likely an elimination game with Tampa playing Spencer Rattler and the Saints in their season finale.
While the Panthers might have a shot at pulling off the upset there is no world in which the Saints will beat the Bucs to hand the Falcons the division. Atlanta's focus must be finding a way to get a win against a difficult Commanders team. Beating them pushes you back into the serious playoff conversation with only Carolina standing between you and your first playoff berth since the 2017 season.
Finding their way into the wildcard round would take a lot of pressure off how the team fumbled away a huge division lead and the debacle that Kirk Cousins' contract has become. Winning cures all and if the Falcons can take care of business not only are they making the playoffs, but they are looking at the offseason completely differently making far less drastic changes.