The Atlanta Falcons followed up their biggest win of the Kevin Stefanski era in Week 7 with what you could truly argue was the worst loss in franchise history in Week 8. As Atlanta headed to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers in a literal monsoon, everything that could've possibly went wrong did.
In a terrential downpour in a crucial divisional matchup, the 16-0 loss saw the Falcons' offense generate no traction as Michael Penix Jr. threw four interceptions, their run game sputtered, and they gave up over 320 rushing yards on 56 rush attempts as Baker Mayfield didn't complete a single pass.
The last time a team won a game without completing a pass was in 1974, and it didn't help that Atlanta had no answers for slowing down the Bucs' run game. They went 0-for-12 on third down as the play-calling on offense from Tommy Rees and defense from Jeff Ulbrich was genuinely atrocious.
Even when you take the weather out of it, the Falcons looked straight-up discombobulated, and it was no excuse for such a lifeless performance. The only thing they can do now is flush it and be better for it, which starts on Sunday morning as they're headed to Madrid to take on the Cincinnati Bengals.
While everyone is too busy worrying about the trade deadline, there's still another game before then--and the Dirty Birds may have the perfect get-right opportunity to keep themselves in a tight NFC South race against an unpredictable Bengals team.
How did the Falcons' Week 9 opponent, the Bengals, do in Week 8?
Before we dive into Week 9, let's look into how the Bengals fared in Week 8. Joe Burrow and company traveled to Nashville to take on the 1-7 Tennessee Titans, where Cincinnati prevailed in a 43-36 overtime thriller despite trailing at the conclusion of the first, second, and third quarters.
Let's just put this into perspective for a second. The Bengals narrowly escaped a shootout against... Cam Ward and the Titans. The same team that entering Sunday was averaging 15.4 points per game and was actively stunting the development of a former No. 1 pick with such a dysfunctional offense.
Dexter Lawrence II was supposed to be the addition that unlocked the Cincinnati defense, and while they struggled, he himself was elite. He logged a sack, a TFL, and seven tackles (four solo), although his two pressures marked his lowest total of the season against an incredibly weak offensive line.
Ward logged the first 300-yard passing game of his career, Tony Pollard recorded his second straight 100-yard rushing game and added two touchdowns, and Tennessee did all of this without Carnell Tate. Gunnar Helm and Chimere Dike were their two leading receivers. How does that happen?
However, the Bengals' offense is what won them this game. With the run game going stagnant, Burrow completed 38 of 48 passes for 462 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions that were all caught by Amani Hooker, yet they still found a way to win on account of their elite receiver duo.
Both Ja'Marr Chase (11-141-1) and Tee Higgins (10-155-2) caught double-digit passes for over 100 yards and a touchdown, so they were dangerous as ever, while Mike Gesicki amassed 76 yards and found the end zone as well, while RB Chase Brown caught eight passes.
The Bengals have won three straight against the Dolphins, Lamar Jackson-less Ravens, and Titans and don't have a quality win on their schedule yet (despite beating the Bucs), so this is a team whom the Dirty Birds can bounce back against, though it will be much easier said than done.
What will the Falcons have to worry about against the Bengals on Sunday?
Especially given what we saw last week, the Falcons will have their work cut out for them. The Bengals boast the NFL's best passing offense, as their 288.4 passing yards per game leads the league, and the only team who's averaging more points per game than them (29.4) is the Buffalo Bills at 33.3 a game-- and they're near the top of the leaderboard in basically every offensive EPA statistic
Joe Burrow is one of the best QBs in the NFL for good reason, and we know he'll give this defense problems because he does to everybody.
This is a high-octane offense because they have one of the more talented cores in the NFL--especially through the air. A.J. Terrell will likely shadow Chase, which means unless C.J. Henderson or Avieon Terrell keep Higgins in check--and those could prove to be disadvantageous matchups.
The good news for Atlanta's defense is that unlike the Bucs, Cincinnati doesn't run the ball a lot. The Raiders and Packers are the only teams who average less rushing yards per game than the Bengals, who are at 80.3 rushing yards per game, which should help the run defense return to its prior form.
Chase Brown is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and is clearly more effective as a pass-catcher than a runner, while Samaje Perine is nothing special. This run game is less worrisome and it's about stopping the pass game, so if they can win the turnover battle and force Burrow into mistakes like the Titans did, this is winnable if the offense does its job.
Speaking of the offense, they're facing a defense that's 20th in defensive EPA success rate and defensive EPA per run per SumerSports, which should be a good opportunity to get Bijan Robinson and the run game going again--especially if RB2 Brian Robinson Jr. returns this week as expected.
Drake London is likely to face his own shadow coverage from D.J. Turner, but that's nothing to worry about. He's still Michael Penix Jr.'s favorite target, and given how much the Falcons move him around the formation, he should have no trouble getting open and diverting attention away from Jahan Dotson and Kyle Pitts.
More importantly, Atlanta needs to lean on BIjan (both on the ground and through the air) and return to their roots of pounding the rock. In the downpour last week, they diverted from that identity (against an elite Bucs' run defense), but this is a more advantageous matchup to do so, and in doing so it'll help set up the play-action game.
In the pass game, it should be all about helping Penix gain his confidence back, but not keeping the training wheels on or expressing a lack of faith in him. That means leaning on the run game and easing him into the gameplan before dialing up the deep shots against a defense they can tire out.
Even with an elite run defender in Sexy Dexy, the Bengals' defense still has visible holes, and for all of the talent they have, everyone is looking past the Falcons this week and assuming they'll drop to 3-6. But let's not forget the glimmer of hope we saw against the 49ers.
So now it's time for Kevin Stefanski and this coaching staff to prove they still have playoff merit with a statement win against a talented team where they are able to take advantage of the matchup nightmare they pose. A win gets them to 4-5 before the trade deadline, and that could change a lot.
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