The Atlanta Falcons' defense got off to such a hot start this season that defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich was generating some head coaching buzz. They had a top run defense and were near the top of the league in pressure rate, so what he had done with this defense was truly sensational given how shorthanded the unit was.
However, in the last few games, the Falcons' defense has returned back down to earth. According to Stat Rankings, , their 18.5% pressure rate across the last three games is third-worst (or 30th) in the NFL, so all of the four-man rushes Ulbrich dialed up have not been getting home anymore.
And since the pressure has regressed, Atlanta's defense has. Against the Bucs, the unit was gashed on the ground, giving up over 300 rushing yards. In Week 9 against the Bengals, it was the opposite. Their secondary was lit up through the air as Joe Burrow completed 24 of 29 passes and threw three touchdowns while Ja'Marr Chase gave A.J. Terrell PTSD after the 2019 national championship.
This is a plenty familiar blueprint for Falcons fans, as Ulbrich had this group humming at the start of last season just to implode down the stretch. But in a weird way, that isn't the worst thing in the world if it means he won't go anywhere and he and Nate Ollie will get to run it back for another season.
The Atlanta Falcons are going to get to keep Jeff Ulbrich for another year
The Dirty Birds have been preparing for the possibility of losing Jeff Ulbrich to a better job since last January, but now they may not have to. How much are teams really going to covet the play-caller of a below-average unit for their DC and head coach gigs? Teams are desperate, but not that desperate.
If I had to take a guess, not as much as last year after the franchise-record sack total, so Stefanski can wait another year to call Jim Schwartz. And going back to last offseason last offseason, the Falcons wouldn't let the 49-year-old go that easily, as they blocked the Cowboys' request to interview him for their DC opening and Atlanta would have blocked the request if anybody else did as well.
Ulbrich is still one of the better defensive minds in football: it's just the gross lack of talent he's working with is finally getting to him. James Pearce Jr. just returned from an eight-game suspension, Jalon Walker is out for the season with a torn ACL, and Jessie Bates was just traded. That should tell you that he's getting a long leash and another year or so to turn things around.
There are some Falcons fans tho think 'Brich should be on the hot seat, but this isn't his fault. The fact he got any sort of positive momentum out of this group (no matter how brief it was) is impressive. You try calling plays for a pass-rush led by Cameron Thomas and a past-his-prime Za'Darius Smith.
Still, this group is playing with a lot of intensity and Arthur Blank seems to be a fan of his--and given Jeff Ulbrich seems to truly love it in Atlanta, I can't imagine he isn't the Falcons' defensive coordinator next season--even with the recent struggles. Though I'm less confident in Nate Ollie staying.
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