1. Brady's Bucs are gone and New Orleans are in disarray
Let's start by looking at the one team that could be a threat to the Falcons in the NFC South, the Carolina Panthers. For the Panthers to be a threat they need to replace the offense they lost over the last six months when they traded D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey in moves to create cap space and make the move up to the first overall pick in the draft.
For Carolina to be a threat to the Falcons not only do they have to replace two superstars but they must make the perfect first-overall pick in the draft with that quarterback instantly ready to contend. Even if the Panthers make the right choice rookie quarterbacks often need at least a season to develop even in today's accelerated timeline.
Nothing about the Saints' off-season indicates the team is any better improving slightly at quarterback while losing key pieces in free agency will cover up what this team really will prove to be. A unit badly in need of a rebuild that continues to attempt to keep a window open that clearly closed when Drew Brees walked away.
Tampa has lost far too many impact players to keep up with going from a Tom Brady run offense to either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask. The window is closed for Tampa and the Bucs are doing the right thing rebuilding.