Atlanta Falcons 2023 season betting preview: Super Bowl odds, win total prediction, prop bets and more
A new era is about to begin for the Atlanta Falcons.
They officially got out of cap space hell this past offseason and as a result have made significant changes to their roster, specifically on defense. They're also rolling with second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder, as their starting quarterback for the upcoming season.
I broke down my favorite bet for the Falcons in my "32 bets for 32 teams" article, which you can read here.
In this article, I'm going to go through the full list of best available betting odds for the upcoming season, including their projected win total and their odds to win the NFC South.
Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl 58 odds
As a Falcons fan myself, I think I can speak for all of us when I say that we have no Super Bowl expectations this year. What we do expect is a significant step in the right direction, which will likely be a spot in the postseason. Anything beyond that is icing on the cake.
At +7000, the Falcons have an implied probability of winning the Super Bowl of 1.41%. A $100 bet on them would win you a profit of $7,000 if they're able to pull off the improbable.
Atlanta Falcons win total prediction for the 2023 season
Oddsmakers do expect the Falcons to improve this season, even if it's not by much. With their win total set at 8.5, they'll improve their record by one win even if they miss the OVER by a single win. They've failed to go over seven wins since going 10-6 in 2017.
After back-to-back 7-10 seasons under Arthur Smith, expect a step forward for the Dirty Birds in 2023.
Atlanta Falcons odds to win NFC South
Many people are claiming the NFC South is the worst division in football this season. There are no teams that are lock for the playoffs and certainly no teams that are actual Super Bowl contenders.
The Falcons, who are 70-1 to win the Super Bowl, are actually second on the odds list to win their division at +230. The Saints are favored at +130.
A $100 bet on the Falcons to win the NFC South would win you a profit of $230 if they're able to achieve the feat.
Atlanta Falcons odds to win NFC
Atlanta Falcons odds to make the playoffs
As I wrote in my "32 bets for 32 teams" article, the Falcons to make the postseason is my favorite bet for this team this season. This is what I wrote:
"Hand up, I have no ability to put my Falcons fandom aside when I write about them. I know that’s not very big 'J' journalist of me, so it’s a good thing I’m not one of those."
I place this same bet on the Falcons virtually every season, but this year I’m more confident in this pick than I have been since Julio Jones dropped a fourth down touchdown pass in the end zone against the Eagles in the playoffs to end their bid to win the NFC for the second straight year.
The Falcons have made a lot of great additions to their defense that not many people are talking about. Calais Campbell, David Onyemata, Bud Dupree and Jessie Bates to name a few. Certainly not names that are going to be all-pro this year, but all veteran guys who are going to fill voids that the Dirty Birds had on that side of the ball.
Mix in the fact the NFC South is the weakest division in football and the Falcons have the second easiest schedule in the league, and it all points towards Atlanta returning to the postseason for the first time since 2017.
Best Atlanta Falcons season-long prop bet
Bijan Robinson Offensive Rookie of the Year (+300)
Bijan Robinson is set as the betting favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and of all the player props available for the Falcons this year, I like this one the best.
The Falcons had the second-highest rushing play rate last year, running the ball on 55.29% of plays. That means you know Robinson will be getting plenty of carries this season. He's also arguably the most talented amongst all rookies, and has shined so far in training camp.
While the NFL MVP award has basically become a "Who was the best QB?" award, Offensive Rookie of the Year has not followed that trend. Wide receivers have won it in two straight seasons and running backs one it in three of four seasons between 2015-2018.
Robinson is favored to win the award for a reason.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.