Best NFL Prop Bets for Texans vs. Falcons in NFL Week 5 (Kyle Pitts breakout game)

Sep 17, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder (9) passes to tight
Sep 17, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder (9) passes to tight / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Falcons are looking to get back on track after dropping two straight games when they head home to host the Houston Texans.

I think the Falcons will do exactly that and I'll be betting on them to win and cover in this game, as I broke down in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets".

But, in this article we're specifically going to take a look at a few player props that I like. If you want to join me on these, then you should sign up for an account at FanDuel Sportsbook because for a limited time, new users will get $200 in bonus bets when they place their first $5 wager! Just click the link below to sign up for this amazing deal.

Texans vs. Falcons prop bets

  • Bijan Robinson OVER 77.5 rushing yards (-114)
  • Dameon Pierce UNDER 49.5 rushing yards (-113)
  • Kyle Pitts OVER 2.5 receptions (-154)

Bijan Robinson OVER 77.5 rushing yards (-114)

With each passing week, Bijan Robinson is becoming the main running back for the Falcons more and more. After playing just 63% of snaps in Week 1, Robinson played 81% of snaps in Week 3 and then 76% of snaps in Week 4. Meanwhile, Tyler Allgeier played only 26% of snaps against the Jaguars.

Now, Robinson gets to face a Houston defense that ranks 20th in the NFL in opponent yards per carry, allowing 4.4 yards per snap.

We already know he's going to get the carries, but now I think he has the matchup he needs to go over his rushing total once again.

Dameon Pierce UNDER 49.5 rushing yards (-113)

The Falcons run defense has been stifling this season. They're keeping teams to just 3.9 yards per carry while also leading the league in opponent rush EPA/play. That's bad news for Dameon Pierce, who is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry this season. Even last week against the Steelers, he rushed for just 3.4 yards per carry against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

The Falcons should have no issue keeping him in check on Sunday so I'll take the UNDER on his rushing yards.

Kyle Pitts OVER 2.5 receptions (-154)

Maybe I'm stupid for thinking this, but I continue to believe Kyle Pitts will have a breakout game sooner rather than later. He's already averaging 2.8 receptions per game, but he has hauled in only 11-of-21 targets. Ridder is throwing him the ball, but he's missing him at too high of a rate.

If the two players can manage to get locked in for an entire game, they're going to put up big numbers against the opposing defense. I think that could happen this Sunday against the Texans so I'll take the OVER 2.5 receptions for the Falcons' tight end.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!