We are just one sleep away from the opening round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Atlanta Falcons hold the No. 8 overall pick in the draft and there are several different ways they could go with that selection. The general consensus is that the Falcons will select a pass-rusher in that slot. It's a glaring need they have and they'll likely have all of the edge rushers available for them when they're on the clock. It's obvious they'll go that direction, right? Not so fast.
Don't be surprised if on Thursday night they take a pass-catcher No. 8 overall.
Falcons 2024 NFL Draft odds
Defensive line/edge rusher is the betting favorite to be the position of the Falcons first pick at -230 odds. If you translate those odds to implied probability, there's a 69.7% chance they go that route with their first pick. The next position on the odds list is cornerback at +205.
I would make the argument the real value lies in them selecting a wide receiver at +800, which would win you a profit of $800 on a $100 wager.
The Falcons' general manager, Terry Fontenot, has said time and time again throughout his tenure that the team will use free agency to get positions they need and will use the draft to select the best player available, regardless of position.
That belief was reinforced by Fontenot once again in a press conference on Tuesday.
Falcons GM Terry Fontenot: "When we talk about best player available, it’s best player available for us. The key is not reaching for needs. ... Today’s surplus is tomorrow’s necessity. Tomorrow can be August in this league."
— Josh Kendall (@JoshTheAthletic) April 23, 2024
The Falcons' stuck to this belief in recent drafts. It's why they took a tight end in Kyle Pitts fourth overall in 2021 and selected a running back in Bijan Robinson at eighth overall last year, despite having Tyler Allgeier coming off a fantastic rookie season at the position.
With that in mind, don't get caught up on the Falcons drafting a pass-rusher just because it's what they "need". Instead, try to think of who the best player available will be when they pick at No. 8. In my opinion, if one of the three top receivers are available at that pick, they'd be the "best player available" no matter which edge rushers are still on the board.
If the Falcons have the chance to draft Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, or Rome Odunze, prepare for them to get Kirk Cousins another weapon at receiver.
If you want to tail this pick and follow me in betting on the Falcons to draft a receiver in the opening round on Thursday night, click one of the links below to take advantage of the latest offers from FanDuel and DraftKings.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.