Falcons vs. Bears prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for NFL Week 17

Dec 24, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III (3) runs after
Dec 24, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III (3) runs after / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

If the Atlanta Falcons want any chance of making the playoffs, the team has to win its final two games. They took care of business against the Colts in Week 16, but can they keep their momentum going with a Week 17 win against the Chicago Bears?

If you want my best bet for every Week 17 game, check out the latest edition of the "Road to 272 Bets".

The Falcons enter this NFC showdown as underdogs, but I'm here to make the case they're worth betting on.

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Falcons vs. Bears odds, spread, and total

Falcons vs. Bears betting trends

  • Falcons are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the Falcons last five games
  • Falcons are 5-11 straight up in their last 16 games vs. Bears
  • Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games played in Chicago
  • Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
  • The UNDER is 6-2 in the Bears' last eight games
  • The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams

Falcons vs. Bears injury reports

Atlanta Falcons injury report

  • Kaleb McGary - OT - Questionable
  • Jake Matthews - OT - Questionable
  • Keith Smith - FB - IR

Chicago Bears injury report

  • Darnell Mooney - WR - Questionable
  • Equainimeous St. Brown - WR - Questionable
  • Noah Sewel - LB - Questionable
  • Treven Jenkins - OT - Questionable
  • D'onta Foreman - RB - Questionable

Falcons vs. Bears how to watch

  • Date: Sunday, Dec. 31
  • Game Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Solider Fields
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • Atlanta Falcons Record: 7-8
  • Chicago Bears Record: 6-9

Falcons vs. Bears key player to watch

Atlanta Falcons

Taylor Heinicke: The Falcons opting for Taylor Heinicke may have been just what the doctor ordered as they try to finish the season strong and give them a chance at a postseason berth. He went 23-of-33 for 229 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions in the win against the Colts last week.

Chicago Bears

Justin Fields: The Bears quarterback has two more starts to prove to management that he's the guy moving forward which would allow the Bears to look at other options with their two top picks in the NFL Draft instead of using one on the quarterback position. He's been good this season, but does he have the ability to be great?

Falcons vs. Bears prediction and pick

43.77% of the Bears' offensive yards come from running the football which is the second highest mark in the league. Only the Ravens have a higher percentage of their yards come from the run game, so the time that you want to bet against the Bears is when they face a team that can stop the run.

Atlanta can do exactly that.

The Falcons lead the NFL in opponent rush EPA while also ranking ninth in both opponent rush success rate and opponent yards per carry, allowing only 3.9 yards per rush. That means the Bears will have to go to the air to get their offense going, and I don't foresee them having much success with that.

Taylor Heinicke gave the Falcons' offense a spark in Week 16, completing 23-of-33 passes for 229 yards and a touchdown. Let's remember this Falcons team is arguably a lot better than their record indicates, ranking 11th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.2 whereas the Bears rank 19th at -0.2.

I'm not brave enough to take Atlanta to win this game outright, but I'll absolutely take them getting a field goal worth of points.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!