Last week, the Atlanta Falcons gained 402 yards and only allowed 193 and still managed to lose to the Commanders 24-16. The issue was turnovers and not being able to get the ball into the end zone. Even with Desmond Ridder struggling, this Atlanta offense is good and we’ll back them to have a bounce back with anytime touchdown bets this week.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are leading the NFC South at 3-2, but have lost two of three with just 17 total points across the two losses.
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers anytime TD picks
- Tyler Allgeier (+290)
- Bijan Robinson (+150)
- Jonnu Smith (+475)
Tyler Allgeier (+290)
The Atlanta Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson, but that’s not because they lacked talent at the running back position. Allgeier was great last season and he’s continued to be a good running back this year. Especially around the goalline where he gets a lot of his work.
Robinson has just seven carries for 12 yards and no touchdowns in the red zone while Allgeier has 32 yards and two touchdowns on on 14 carries. Allgeier is getting the red zone carries for Atlanta and actually only has five fewer carries than Robinson.
Bijan Robinson (+150)
But I just said that Robinson doesn’t get any red zone carries. How could I also be betting on him as an anytime TD value?
Well, the answer is targets.
Robinson is third on the team in targets with 32, that’s more than WR 2 Mack Hollins and in the red zone, he’s been targeted four times, caught all four, and scored twice.
In six games, Robinson has 80 carries and 32 targets, but only two touchdowns. For a player that is ripping off five yards per carry and 7.3 yards per reception that is very low touchdown production.
Jonnu Smith (+475)
I said that Robinson is tied for third in targets on this team. He’s behind Kyle Pitts and Drake London, no surprises there, but he’s tied with Jonnu Smith. Last week, Smith had four catches for 36 yards and a touchdown. He has the same number of red zone targets as Kyle Pitts, but with one more catch and more value on an anytime TD bet.
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