Falcons vs. Saints best NFL prop bets for Week 18

Dec 24, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) carries the
Dec 24, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) carries the / John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

It's must win for the Falcons as the team travels to face the Saints in Week 18.

Both teams need to win and get some help in order to make the postseason, but how will this one play out? Our betting expert Iain MacMillian covered this game in his Road to 272, which you can find here, but this is going to target our favorite player props and derivative bets, including how to bet on Bijan Robinson!

Best Prop Bets for Falcons vs. Saints in Week 18

  • 1st half UNDER 20.5
  • Bijan Robinson OVER 82.5 rushing + receiving yards
  • Derek Carr UNDER 232.5 passing yards

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1st half UNDER 20.5

These two teams love to play games close to the vest and move the ball methodically. Typically, both teams play a prodding style that comes down to out-executing opponents in the red zone.

In the first meeting between these teams back on November 26th, there was 23 points scored in the first half, but I believe that's driving the price up on this total.

It's worth noting that Alvin Kamara's status is up in the air in this one, which could severely hamper the Saints' offense. When Kamara is off the field, the team goes from ninth in EPA/Play to 27th and I expect the Saints to lean on its strong defense that is top 10 in EPA/Play.

Count on a slow start in this one and plenty of field goals early on.

Bijan Robinson OVER 82.5 rushing + receiving yards

It took a while, but Arthur Smith is finally letting the rookie top 10 pick cook out of the backfield.

Robinson has at least 18 or more touches in the past two games and has cleared this mark in five of the last seven games.

Taylor Heinicke is battling a thumb injury which may limit his effectiveness, meaning that he may be more inclined to check down to Robinson in the passing game, so I advise taking the combined rushing and receiving yard prop.

Derek Carr UNDER 232.5 passing yards

With no Kamara possibly, the Saints offense takes a big hit, but this is my favorite way to fade the team's offense.

Carr has been able to string together big games when chasing, including 319 yards against the Rams in a losing effort. However, this short spread implies a tight game that should feature the Saints in control or within a score.

Since the Saints 2-0 start, Carr has not passed for more than 220 yards in five of six wins. Given that the team is implied to win, I'll follow this trend and take under on Carr's passing yard prop, especially if he's down his favorite weapon.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!