Why You Need to Bet the Falcons to Win the NFC South Right Now

At +300 to win the NFC South over at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Atlanta Falcons present clear betting value after an NFL Draft that confirmed what many have suspected about the Falcons: they want to bully the ever-loving daylights out of opposing teams.

Taking superstar running back Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 pick before drafting the physically-imposing tackle Matthew Bergeron means Atlanta is likely doubling-down on a run-heavy style while the team develops around Desmond Ridder.

I believe the strategy will work. Against the worst division in football, the Falcons will be in a great position to sneak by the Saints and are worth strong consideration for bettors. Let's look at the odds before I explain why.

2023-24 NFC South Division Odds

Why You Should Bet on the Falcons

The argument around backing Atlanta is simple: the strengths got stronger and the weaknesses likely will too, especially offensively. Robinson will immediately be one of the NFL's best running backs the second he steps on the field, and he joins an offense that already ranked sixth in the league in yards per rush attempt (4.9) with a coach in Arthur Smith who has years of success creating rushing attacks.

New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Carolina were all middling against the rush last year, so an even stronger attack bolstered should pay dividends for a team that finished just one win shy of tying for the division crown.

Atlanta's biggest issues came at the quarterback position, where Marcus Mariota was one of the NFL's worst throwers by any metric. While I have questions about Ridder, he almost certainly can't be worse than Mariota and the team clearly believes in him based on their offseason moves.

Drake London and Kyle Pitts form an exciting young receiving duo, and the pressure that Robinson (alongside Cordarelle Patterson and Tyler Allegier) will put on defenses should free up the passing attack.

While the Saints upgraded at quarterback with Derek Carr, the roster is still riddled with holes filled by aging and oft-injured players. Chris Olave is the only skill position player who we could expect a step forward from and the defense has declined the last few seasons as stars like Cam Jordan aged.

Overall, it's hard to argue New Orleans is three times as likely to win the NFC South as the Falcons. Atlanta nearly pulled off a division title last season and seemed to make marked improvements over the last several months as the organization embraces the "bully-ball" mentality.

I expect the NFC South to be a competitive battle, allowing hedge opportunities if needed. Regardless, I don't expect +300 to last for long and am pouncing on the opportunity before it's too late.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.