Last weekend, the Atlanta Falcons battled heavy winds and a torrential downpour while trying to right their ship and take the NFC South against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Unfortunately the execrable weather would sink their vessel as the Falcons would fall 16-0 to the Bucs.
During this game Michael Penix Jr. threw the ball an astounding 24 times--which in the weather felt like a lot. Within those throws lies small details that Penix has struggled with even outside of weather games. The Falcons QB threw for 125 yards (most of which came on one play to Jahan Dotson), going 8-24 with no touchdowns, a mind-numbing four interceptions, and a fumble.
This was the first time he'd ever thrown for four interceptions at any level. Not with the Falcons. Not in college. Not in high school. Never. Though this game continues to feel like a throw away, the idea still remains that some of the problems he faced and failed to achieve won't disappear with a sunny sky.
Todd Bowles' defensive scheme put Michael Penix Jr. into a waking nightmare in Week 8
Michael Penix Jr. has shown time and time again that he struggles against heavy defensive sets that linger players on the line periodically bouncing them out into varying zone coverages. Unfortunately he was up against that and more verse Todd Bowles in the rain.
With that came one of the worst game of his career on the Falcons. Penix looked over reliant of play structures, rushing himself to throw the ball to folks who were just not open on multiple occasions. It felt as if his "anticipation" throws were made before pre-checking routes, leading to multiple early Alex Anzalone interceptions. He struggled with this exact thing on his first interception of the season in Green Bay. Ultimately this game felt out of the ordinary for the same man who dotted up the 49ers the week before. Here's how Todd Bowles manipulated Penix.
Bowles initiated the usage of 5-1-5 "penny fronts" and variations of 6-1 and 6-2 formations to counter Atlanta's run attack. Using a formation that plugs holes with five to six defensive lineman while only utilizing one or two linebackers allowed for heavier defensive backs to defend against the pass and rely on speed to plug extra gaps instead of multiple slower linebackers.
This scheme effectively collapsed the Falcons line regularly pressuring Penix on 8 of his 25 drop backs (32%) which ranks around top 10. On top of that the Bucs rank around 9th in pure zone coverage usage at around 80% and didn't shy away from it on Sunday. Based on ESPN research before the 49ers game he averaged a 39 QBR against zone coverage. This was dire for Penix.
Overall the Bucs forced Michael Penix Jr. into diagnosing zones post snap, while disrupting his timing, and forcing him to make decisions outside the structure of the play. Unfortunately Penix couldn’t adjust, and against a top run defense, they couldn't rely on the run game much either.
Michael Penix Jr. has a shot to bounce back against a weaker Bengals' defense
Michael Penix Jr. will be facing a Bengals team Sunday morning in Madrid that ranks 32nd in the league in blitz rate at just 19.1%, #1 in the league in light box rate at 57.5%, and the league lowest heavy box rate at 16.7%. If you didn't already think Penix was gleaning looking at these numbers then take a look at this; the Bengals rank fourth in the league in man coverage rate at 28.5%. These numbers are significant because Penix averages some of his best performances against man coverage placing at around an 81 QBR according to the same ESPN research from earlier.
The 180 in defensive strategy may serve as a stimulus for Michael Penix Jr.'s "comeback game"
"I believe that we will see major improvement from his performance and I'm not the only one. “I'm 100-percent certain he'll bounce back,” Falcons president of football Matt Ryan told The Hernando Sun. “This is just part of it. We've all been there.”
Matty Ice had been there throwing 5 interceptions 2013 against the Arizona Cardinals who oddly enough Todd Bowles coordinated for. As most know Matt Ryan would come back and lead the Falcons to the Super Bowl three years later.
That being said, keep an eye on No. 9 in Spain, because the Falcons aren't losing confidence in him--and neither should you.
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