Turnover Improvement is the Reason for Falcons Success
By Adnan Ikic
The Atlanta Falcons are off to a blazing hot start this season. What is the biggest reason for the Falcons improvement this year?
The Atlanta Falcons have gotten off to an incredible start this season: sitting at a 3-1 quarter-pole record. The success is even more impressive when you look at the tough tests Atlanta has overcome thus far — winning games in Oakland (who are 3-1 themselves) and New Orleans (a house of horrors for Matt Ryan), and slapping around the defending NFC Champion Carolina Panthers.
Ask anyone what the reason for this success is, and they will probably tell you it’s because of the prolific offense, led by potential MVP candidate Matt Ryan.
While they would technically be right, the number one reason for this early season success goes a little deeper than just saying “Matt Ryan”. It’s Atlanta’s vast improvement in the turnover department that has them looking like a team just shot out of a cannon, four weeks in.
Last year was an unmitigated disaster when it came to the turnover department — the Falcons had 23 takeaways against 30 giveaways, a difference of -7, good for sixth worst in the NFL.
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The ability to force turnovers and take care of the ball is absolutely critical for success in the NFL. Last season, the bottom 11 teams in turnover margin all missed the playoffs; the season before, 14 of the bottom 15 teams in turnover margin all missed the playoffs (the Colts were the lone outlier, but they played in the league’s weakest division).
The Falcons were actually right in the middle of the pack when it came to takeaways last year: ranking 16th in the league, with 23. However, the 30 giveaways represented the fifth worst mark in the NFL. You can’t give the ball away at that clip and expect to win much in the NFL.
The storm-clouds looked to have parted in the turnover department this season, however, as Atlanta is taking care of the ball the way they should be. The Falcons’ turnover margin through four games this year is +3 — that’s good for (tied) sixth best in the NFL.
The reason for that great mark is the added emphasis on taking care of the ball. Atlanta has only given the ball away 2 times this year: that’s third fewest in the league.
And while the defense isn’t taking the ball away at a high clip (5 takeaways: good for just 19th in the league), the takeaways that have happened have been huge in helping win games. Deion Jones’ pic 6 against the Saints put that game out of reach for New Orleans, while Robert Alford’s interceptions taken back for a score put the nail in Carolina’s coffin a week later.
Even the game against the Oakland Raiders featured a decisive defensive play, one which did not show up on the stat-sheet as a takeaway — the defense stuffed RB Jalen Richard on a late 4th and 2 attempt in Oakland territory, to give the ball back to the offense. That play set up a Tevin Coleman touchdown, which gave the birds a two touchdown lead.
Winning the turnover battle is especially important for teams like Atlanta, who are led by a prolific offense, but feature a below average defense on the other side of the ball. Getting those takeaways stops the other team from exploiting the team’s main weakness (the defense), and gets the ball back into the hands of the prolific offense.
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The 2012 Falcons are a perfect example of this formula working. That team was 8th in the NFL in total offense, but only 25th in total defense. Those rankings don’t constitute the 13-3 season that team had. So what compensated for that defensive deficiency? You guessed it: turnover margin. The 2012 Falcons were 5th in the NFL with a turnover margin of +13 (31 takeaways vs. 18 giveaways).
There’s no way that 2012 team sniffs the record it had without forcing turnovers on one side of the ball, and limiting them on the other.
Atlanta, this season, has so far done a good job limiting the giveaways; and, on the side of the ball, what the takeaways have lacked in quantity, they’ve made up for in quality (two game-sealing defensive touchdowns).
It’s not just the Falcons who are benefiting from a good turnover difference, either — the current 11 teams with a turnover margin of +3 or better all have a record of 2-2 or better. The two teams with the fewest giveaways (Minnesota and Philadelphia) are both undefeated.
So while Matt Ryan’s gaudy passing numbers are at the forefront of Atlanta’s success, it’s what number 2 isn’t doing (turning the ball over) that’s been just as important for this strong start as anything else.