Flashback Friday: Remembering Matt Ryan’s Historic 2016 Season

In this week’s edition of Flashback Friday, we remember just how historic Matt Ryan’s 2016 season truly was.

Fresh off his number 10 ranking in the Top 100, Matt Ryan has been the topic of much discussion recently. The Falcons signal caller was the third ranked quarterback on the list, trailing only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

But as is the case for his entire career, the perception surrounding Matty Ice continues to produce mixed results. Some believe him to be a top three quarterback like his ranking suggests, while others view him in a different light. This is despite the fact that Matt Ryan orchestrated arguably one of the 10 greatest QB seasons in NFL history in 2016.

With that said, let’s rewind the 2016 season and see just how extraordinary Matt Ryan’s campaign was in the annals of history.

To do so, we must put the five or six historic seasons that came before Ryan’s under the microscope. For argument’s sake, we will be excluding Dan Marino’s 1984 season, Steve Young’s 1994 season, and Kurt Warner’s 1999 season. All three masterful seasons came before their time and deserve to be judged accordingly.

Therefore, the quarterback seasons we will use for this exercise are Peyton Manning’s 2004 and 2013, Tom Brady’s 2007 and 2010, Aaron Rodgers’s 2011 and Drew Brees’s 2011. With the exception of Brees’s 2011 season, all of the other seasons resulted in MVP awards for each player.

So, before we break down how each 16 game season compares statistically to Ryan’s, it’s only right if we list out each one side by side.

• Peyton Manning 2004: 67.6 comp% 4,557 yards 9.78 ANY/A* 49 TD*/10 INT 121.1 QB Rating*
• Tom Brady 2007: 68.9 comp% 4,806 yards 8.88 ANY/A 50 TD*/8 INT 117.2 QB Rating  
• Tom Brady 2010: 65.9 comp% 3,900 yards 8.25 ANY/A 36 TD/4 INT 111.0 QB Rating
• Aaron Rodgers 2011: 68.3 comp% 4,643 yards 9.39 ANY/A 45 TD/6 INT 122.5 QB Rating*
• Drew Brees 2011: 71.2 comp%* 5,476 yards* 8.23 ANY/A 46 TD/14 INT 110.6 QB Rating
• Peyton Manning 2013: 68.3 comp% 5,477 yards* 8.87 ANY/A 55 TD*/10 INT 115.1 QB Rating
• Matt Ryan 2016: 69.9 comp% 4,944 yards 9.03 ANY/A 38 TD/7 INT 117.1 QB Rating

*denotes either a current or previous NFL record

Statistical Analysis

For those that are unfamiliar, ANY/A (Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt) is an advanced metric used to measure a quarterback’s ability to move the ball downfield. It incorporates sacks and sack yards into the formula, which we all know to be drive killers.

ANY/A has also been one of the best indicators in determining the league MVP. Had it not been for Nick Foles’s outlier 2013 season in which he only started 10 games, all six of the MVP seasons listed above would have led the league in ANY/A that year.

Matt Ryan’s 9.03 ANY/A stacks up favorably with the rest of the historic seasons, especially when you consider he posted the second highest completion percentage of the group. In fact, the only 2016 stat in which Ryan does not finish in the top four in among the Hall of Fame cast is touchdowns thrown.

However, if we use TD% (percentage of TDs thrown per pass attempt), Matt Ryan’s 7.1% mark is not even the worst of the bunch. That honor belongs to Drew Brees (7.0%), the only non-MVP season on this list.

Matt’s low TD% compared to the group can be attributed to his supporting cast, namely the running backs, stealing touchdowns away from him. Of the seven historical seasons, no team had more rushing touchdowns than Matt Ryan’s 2016 Falcons with 20.

Supporting Cast

Speaking of supporting casts, Matt Ryan’s success often gets cited because of a stellar supporting cast. But don’t get it twisted, in order for any QB to claim an MVP trophy, he must have quality players around him.

Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees are no exception to this rule.

The 2004 Colts had Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Edgerrin James, Brandon Stokley, and Dallas Clark; the 2007 Patriots had Randy Moss and Wes Welker while the 2010 team had Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez; the 2011 Packers possessed Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Donald Driver and Jermichael Finley; the 2011 Saints trotted out Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles; And finally, the 2013 Broncos had the luxury of Demaryus Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, Julius Thomas, and Knowshon Moreno.

Anyone that thinks those supporting casts are any less talented than the 2016 Falcons can’t be taken seriously.

And for those that credit Kyle Shanahan for Ryan’s MVP season, why are we not doing the same for the Patriots’ 2007 season with Josh McDaniels or the Broncos’ 2013 season with Adam Gase? Both were young offensive gurus that went on to become head coaches after successful stints as a coordinator.

In the case of Brady, he did not post elite level production until the famed 2007 season. The following were his numbers in the six seasons that preceded that year:

• 2001 (Age 24, 15 games played): 63.9 comp% 2,843 yards 5.39 ANY/A 18 TD/12 INT 86.5 QB Rating
• 2002 (Age 25, 16 games played): 62.1 comp% 3,764 yards 5.54 ANY/A 28 TD/14 INT 85.7 QB Rating
• 2003 (Age 26, 16 games played): 60.2 comp% 3,620 yards 5.94 ANY/A 23 TD/12 INT 85.9 QB Rating
• 2004 (Age 27, 16 games played): 60.8 comp% 3,692 yards 6.92 ANY/A 28 TD/14 INT 92.6 QB Rating
• 2005 (Age 28, 16 games played): 63.0 comp% 4,110 yards 6.86 ANY/A 26 TD/14 INT 92.3 QB Rating
• 2006 (Age 29, 16 games played): 61.8 comp% 3,529 yards 6.08 ANY/A 24 TD/12 INT 87.9 QB Rating

It is also worth mentioning that Josh McDaniels was officially the offensive coordinator for only one season prior to the Patriots’ record-setting season. Sound familiar, Falcons fans?

However, because Brady already had three Super Bowls under his belt, no one will credit McDaniels for taking Brady’s game to the next level like critics are quick to do for Ryan with Shanahan.

Playoff Success

As I just alluded to, Ryan’s past playoff success – or lack thereof – has contributed to this perception that he is not a top tier quarterback. But in looking at the 2016 season individually, Matt Ryan has just as much playoff success during his historic season as any of the other quarterbacks on the aforementioned list did during theirs.

Not to mention 2010 Brady who, like Rodgers, also did not win a playoff game that year.

It is also important to remember that playoff success is a team accomplishment; however, quarterbacks are often judged on how they perform when the lights are on bright.

So, in case more reinforcements are needed in Matt’s defense, here is how his 2016 playoff numbers compare among the “Big Seven” seasons:

• Peyton Manning ’04 Playoffs (2 games, 1-1 rec): 72.0 comp% 696 yards 8.75 ANY/A 4 TD/2 INT 107.4 QB Rating
• Tom Brady ’07 Playoffs (3 games, 2-1 rec): 70.6 comp% 737 yards 5.73 ANY/A 6 TD/3 INT 96.0 QB Rating
• Tom Brady ’10 Playoffs (1 game, 0-1 rec): 64.4 comp% 299 yards 5.08 ANY/A 2 TD/1 INT 89.0 QB Rating
• Aaron Rodgers ’11 Playoffs (1 game, 0-1 rec): 56.5 comp% 264 yards 4.72 ANY/A 2 TD/1 INT 78.5 QB Rating
  
• Drew Brees ’11 Playoffs (2 games, 1-1 rec): 68.9 comp% 928 yards 8.50 ANY/A 7 TD/2 INT 110.1 QB Rating
  
• Peyton Manning ’13 Playoffs (3 games, 2-1 rec): 71.1 comp% 910 yards 6.78 ANY/A 5 TD/3 INT 94.2 QB Rating
• Matt Ryan ’16 Playoffs (3 games, 2-1 rec): 71.4 comp% 1,014 yards 10.71 ANY/A 9 TD/0 INT 135.3 QB Rating
  

Conclusion

At the end of the day, the only thing preventing people from giving Matt Ryan his just due is perception. He has the numbers in both the regular season and the playoffs to warrant the distinction of having a top 10 all-time season.

But because he doesn’t have a ring, pundits are hesitant to place him among the greats. The numbers don’t lie, though, and neither does that MVP award. In 2016, Matt Ryan authored one of the finest quarterbacking seasons in NFL history.

However, what Matty Ice offers for a sequel will go a long way in determining his overall legacy. Falcons fans are hoping 2016 was no fluke.

Next: Atlanta Falcons: Surprising Franchise Records