How the Atlanta Falcons can still win the NFC South
It’s not out of the realm of possibility for the Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC South still. Here’s how they can do exactly that.
After 10 games, the Atlanta Falcons won a 6-4 record. They’re in third place in their division. The Carolina Panthers are in second place at 7-3, and the New Orleans Saints currently sit on top of the NFC South with a record of 8-2.
Two games out of the division lead with only six to play doesn’t sound good, does it? However, the Falcons could still claim the South, and not just with an obvious situation of them winning all of their games while the Saints, Panthers, and Bucs lose all of theirs.
Atlanta plays five of their remaining six games against division opponents – New Orleans twice, Tampa Bay twice, and Carolina once. Should the Falcons win all of their remaining games, they’d finish at 12 – 4.
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If the Saints won all of their remaining games except the two against Atlanta, they would also be 12 – 4. However, having lost twice to the Falcons along the way, the Saints would finish behind the Falcons in the division.
If the Panthers won all of their remaining games except the one against Atlanta, they would finish 12 – 4, as well. Also, they would have split the head-to-head matchup with the Falcons. Ah, but Carolina’s record against the rest of the NFC South would be 4 – 2 (having lost to the Saints 34-13 back on September 24), while Atlanta’s would be 5-1.
Carolina and New Orleans play each other again on December 3, so in a scenario where the Falcons win out the rest of the way and the Saints do, too, except against Atlanta, the Panthers would finish 11-5. If it’s the Panthers who win out the rest of the way except against the Falcons, it’s the Saints who finish 11-5.
So that puts Atlanta in the playoffs as NFC South Champions, but where would they seed against the rest of the conference? That gets a lot more muddled.
Philadelphia doesn’t play any NFC South teams this year in the regular season, and I have a hard time seeing them dropping six in a row to finish at 9-7. I have a hard time seeing them going .500 the rest of the way to finish 12-4, to be honest, so I think they’ll be the No. 1 seed.
Minnesota has to play Atlanta and Carolina before the end of the year, so in the scenario where the Falcons win out and the Panthers win out except against the Falcons, the Vikings would finish 12-4 at best. They would lose the tiebreaker for seeding in the conference, though, because their record against the rest of the NFC would be 9-3, while Atlanta’s would be 11-1. In the scenario where it’s the Falcons and Saints winning out (except for the Saints games against Atlanta), Minnesota could conceivably finish 13-3.
The Rams don’t play the Panthers or Falcons this year, so in that possibility the Rams could possibly finish 13-3. Los Angeles does play New Orleans, though, so in that contingency they could finish 12-4. However, they’d be 8-4 against the NFC and thus finish be the Falcons in the playoff seeding.
Next: Scouting the Falcons opponent in Week 12
So, yes, it’s mathematically possible for the Falcons to not only win the South but also get the No. 1 seed in the conference. Should they win the South, though, it looks more likely they will get anywhere from the No. 2 to the No. 4 seed.