In a move everyone saw coming, Bijan Robinson became the highest paid running back in the NFL for all of...one day. The details of his contract are already in at Over the Cap, and when considering context, the Falcons did quite well for themselves on the deal. This one can truly be considered fair for all sides.
The contract details
Robinson's APY cleared the previous high-water mark, $20.6 million, by $1.6 million. But NFL contracts are so much more than the surface level APY. Guarantees, cash flows and effective APY are what teams care about. And in all three respects the Falcons are in a good spot.
Bijan was already under contract through 2027. This new deal only extends his fully guaranteed years by one to 2028. Over that time, he will only receive $22.25 million in new money. The contract does have a rolling guarantee that will force Atlanta to choose to remain committed to Robinson in 2028, as on the third day of that league year $8.5 million of his $22 million salary in 2029 becomes fully guaranteed.
Bijan only gets over $20 million in cash in two of the five years he is now under contract for. He gets $18,744,348 in 2026. 2027 and 2028 are extremely team-friendly salaries at $8,323,000 and $10,500,000, respectively. In 2029 he gets $22,000,000 before topping out with $22,250,000 in 2030.
The effective APY
The new money APY is $22.25 million per year. But as you can see with the actual cash flows, he really isn;t getting that in all but one season. When teams ink players to extensions they consider the entirety of the deal, including the current terms as well as the new. For the Falcons, they look at Bijan's contract as a five-year deal worth $81,817,348 with an effective APY of $16,363,470.
Compare that effective APY with his contemporaries and it really crystalizes how this deal was fair for the Falcons. Saquon Barkley's effective APY is $17,175,075. Jonathan Taylor's new deal brings his effective APY to $19,000,000. And with the announcing of Jahmyr Gibbs' deal, his effective APY is now $16,995,286.
Having the best running back in the NFL for less money per year than three other players at his position isn't half-bad.
Historical context
The NFL's modern business era started in 2011 with the advent of the rookie wage scale. Since then, 12 running backs have signed higher APY deals than Bijan, when controlling for the salary cap.
Player | Year | Cap-Adjusted APY |
|---|---|---|
Adrian Peterson | 2011 | $35,546,327 |
Chris Johnson | 2011 | $33,763,801 |
Adrian Peterson | 2015 | $29,430,486 |
Marshawn Lynch | 2015 | $25,226,131 |
Le'Veon Bell | 2018 | $24,721,517 |
Todd Gurley | 2018 | $24,434,255 |
Christian McCaffrey | 2020 | $24,338,925 |
Ezekiel Elliott | 2019 | $24,006,376 |
Alvin Kamara | 2020 | $22,795,156 |
Jahmyr Gibbs | 2026 | $22,500,000 |
LeSean McCoy | 2012 | $22,477,612 |
Christian McCaffrey | 2024 | $22,407,204 |
Given this historical context, the Bijan Robinson contract, paired with the responsible cash flows and guarantee structure, is a downright bargain.
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