In Week 9, the Atlanta Falcons were diced up by one elite quarterback in Joe Burrow, and now they're set to face their second in as many weeks. Next up on the docket is a matchup with Patrick Mahomes and a dangerous Kansas City Chiefs' offense, though the three-time Super Bowl MVP is not at 100%.
In Week 9 against the New York Jets, after Mahomes suffered a seemingly-gruesome injury to his throwing elbow after Jets' rookie David Bailey slammed into him to force a fummble shortly before halftime. The broadcast showed his arm dangling, yet he did not miss a single offensive snap.
Here's the thing though: the two-time NFL MVP is one of the best ever in terms of playing through injury. His toughness is off the charts, so it doesn't matter what he's going through, he'll be out there on Sunday afternoon. And Ian Rapoport solely referred to Mahomes' injury as an elbow strain/sprain.
He said that he'll be 100% for Sunday, as both he and Andy Reid said on Wednesday they expect him to practice in full--and he did just that. All this injury will really be about is soreness and pain management since he won't miss any time, but even banged up, him being out there changes things.
After Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase went crazy against the Falcons' defense in Madrid, they know they cannot afford to overlook one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history regardless of how healthy he is or what injuries he is playing through--which is bound to make things difficult for Jeff Ulbrich.
Healthy or not, containing Patrick Mahomes will be a problem for the Atlanta Falcons
First, let's go over what happened to the 6-2 Chiefs in Week 9 in more detail. They blew out the Jets 35-13, behind 102 rushing yards and three total touchdowns (one rushing, two receiving) from Kenneth Walker III while Travis Kelce had a big day, catching four passes for 72 yards and a rush TD.
Even if Patrick Mahomes isn't 100%, this Atlanta defense still has to account for Walker The only RB in the NFL with more rushing yards than the reigning Super Bowl MVP this year is Bijan Robinson, and now that he's a true feature back in Kansas City, he's been one of the best in the business.
As a Michigan State alum who's freshman year aligned with K9's only season in East Lansing, it warms my heart to see him thriving. Unfortunately, that's bad news for a run defense who's already been gashed by both Derrick Henry and Bucky Irving, two RBs who have been worse than Walker this year.
According to Stat Rankings, Walker III is tied with Jahmyr Gibbs for the league lead in missed tackles forced with 57. The guy is shifty, elusive, and a very tough runner, so they are bound to rely on him to pound the rock to make pressure off the pass game--especially since Mahomes is still dinged up.
What can the Falcons do to slow down the Chiefs' offense in Week 10?
The other thing to remember is that the Chiefs haven't been relying on the 31-year-old as often this season. Kansas City finally has a run game, and in the air, they don't test defenses downfield as often as they did when Tyreek Hill was on the team, so this injury won't take away his bread and butter.
Rashee Rice is best as a YAC threat and Kelce isn't as dangerous as he was in his prime, yet he's still a reliable safety valve. But the real kicker is what they did at the trade deadline, as they acquired Josh Downs from the Indianapolis Colts for another reliable route runner for Mahomes in the short game.
The game-plan, especially if Mahomes hurt is going to be to get the ball out quickly, and hope they can pick up big gains after the catch against a defense that has had a problem with missing tackles this season. And whether that's Rice, Walker, Kelce, or Downs, they have the talent to stay afloat with No. 15 not at full strength.
The easiest way for Ulbrich to capitalize is to dial up pressure, especially off the edge. However, James Pearce Jr. is still ramping up after his eight-game suspension, Cameron Thomas has fizzled out, and Samson Ebukam is on IR. 34-year-old Za'Darius Smith has been the most productive edge-rusher on the team, and Gervon Dexter and Brandon Dorlus have done the heavy lifting from inside.
The Dirty Birds haven't been getting home rushing four anymore. According to Stat Rankings, the Falcons' 18.5% pressure rate across the last three games is third-worst (30th) in the NFL. And if they want to win this game, they need to make Mahomes uncomfortable or they'll march down the field.
The Falcons' offense will have to keep up with an injured Patrick Mahomes
Michael Penix Jr. and the offense will have to step up in this matchup too, as only the Bills have a more productive offense than the Chiefs. After Atlanta was averaging 31 points per game through his first five starts, the offense has sputtered of late between the drubbing in Tampa and the Madrid loss.
Penix has thrown five interceptions across the last two games after throwing just one through his first five starts--and it came on his opening drive in Green Bay. The run game has been inconsistent, and after spending time looking like a franchise QB, his long-term future is back to being in real doubt.
The good news is that the Chiefs are thin at cornerback with Mansoor Delane (who should return this week) and L'Jarius Sneed sealing with injuries, so the opportunity should be there for Drake London and Jahan Dotson to make some plays. So if they want to keep up with the Chiefs, it's through the air.
The Atlanta Falcons are going to have their hands full against the Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 10, so hopefully they can take advantage of him not being fully healthy to pull off another shocking upset, and in order to do so, Penix needs to display some consistency.
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