The Atlanta Falcons are riding high following a a 29-20 upset over the previously-unbeaten San Francisco 49ers in Week 7 where their defense came through with some clutch turnovers while Raheem Morris and the San Francisco defense didn't do much to make life hard on Michael Penix Jr.
It was a much-needed W for a team that was fresh off of two deflating losses to quality opponents--and it was the perfect way for Atlanta to pick up its first home win of the season. And now that they're 3-4, the Falcons are just a game back of the Panthers for the NFC South lead, so they have the perfect opportunity to take control of the division with another win in Week 8.
Speaking of the NFC South, the Falcons are set to travel to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers on Sunday, and this is a matchup where this team can't get ahead of themselves. Kevin Stefanski needs to keep them focused because this is going to be something of a trap game if they are not careful.
Atlanta can't afford to overlook the Bucs because of their 2-5 record when all five of their losses came in one-score games against opponents over .500 (with a combined record is 24-9) and their average margin of defeat is 5.4 points. That isn't a team who is bad, if anything they're unlucky.
This is a solid team with a talented roster, and when it comes to division games, all bets are off. So let's dive into what happened to the Buccaneers in Week 7 and go over what the Dirty Birds can expect this weekend.
The Atlanta Falcons can't afford to underestimate the Bucs after their Week 7 win
While the Falcons are coming off of a big victory, the Bucs are fresh off of a statement win of their own. After missing the last three games due to a dislocated thumb, Baker Mayfield returned to the lineup, which saw Tampa Bay offer the Panthers a spanking in a 43-13 blowout victory on Sunday.
The Bucs' defense was dominant in this one, as they halted a high-powered Carolina offense that entered Week 7 second in the NFL in total offense, first in passing offense, and fourth in scoring offense. They forced four turnovers, including two Bryce Young interceptions and a fumble returned for a touchdown and they also ran back a blocked extra point.
The Buccaneers also sacked Young five times, and of those five sacks, three of them came courtesy of YaYa Diaby, as Todd Bowles was sending pressure all game long.
And on offense, it was just as elite. They went up so much they hardly needed Mayfield to do much: as he logged just 11 pass attempts. It was Tampa Bay decimating the Panthers' putrid run defense that was the reason for the outcome, as they combined for nearly 50 carries and over 250 rushing yards.
Bucky Irving crossed the century mark and scored twice, backup Kenneth Gainwell mustered 88 rushing yards, and RB3 Sean Tucker broke a 46-yard score in garbage time. And that's the identity former Falcons OC Zac Robinson wants these Bucs to have, and in an ideal world, they can keep Baker below 20 pass attempts every week and just pound the rock.
What will the Falcons have to worry about against the Bucs on Sunday?
Their defense is humming, as only three teams are better than Tampa Bay in total defense through seven weeks and only the Jaguars are allowing less rushing yards per game than the Bucs. Every year they are stout against the run it feels like, and 2026 is no different--which isn't good for us.
That means they won't make it easy on Atlanta's own run-first identity and if the Falcons want to get Bijan Robinson going, they may have to do it through the air--something they haven't done a lot of this year.
Thankfully, the Falcons beat the 49ers despite being inefficient on the ground because Michael Penix Jr. came through, and this is a matchup where the young QB can do some damage. This Tampa Bay defense is bad at covering the middle of the field, and we all know they struggle to contain Kyle Pitts.
Bowles' whole shtick is to send a lot of pressure, and unfortunately, that's the one area where Penix has struggled. Between Al-Quadin Muhammad, David Walker, Rueben Bain, and Diaby (plus Vita Vea plugging the middle), a matchup with this defensive line is almost never advantageous.
This means the offensive line needs to hold up and Penix needs to keep getting the ball out quick like he did last week. The OL bounced back on Sunday, but that was against a 49ers unit that was missing Nick Bosa. This talented Bucs' pass-rush is going to present a unique challenge for Bill Callahan.
The Bucs have also been great at containing opposing WR1s, as they kept Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Tetairoa McMillan in check--so a matchup with Zyon McCollum won't be ideal for Drake London--but with how much Penix loves him, this should be okay.
The threat the Atlanta Falcons' defense poses to the Bucs in Week 8
Let's shift gears to the offense, because they have some serious issues on that side of the ball. Mayfield is obviously not 100% yet, and even when he's been healthy, he hasn't been great. They'll probably aim to run the ball down Atlanta's throat, but this run defense is way better than Carolina's.
LaCale London leads the NFL with a 48% run stop win rate, and the linebacker tandem of Kendal Daniels and Harold Perkins Jr/Divine Deablo makes it hard for teams to run on the Falcons. And now that the secondary is back to full strength and making plays, this defense is once again dangerous.
The Bucs' offensive line has improved of late after some early struggles, but this Atlanta pass-rush has been getting home pressure-wise. Between Gervon Dexter Sr., Brandon Dorlus, Samson Ebukam, Cameron Thomas, and several others, they are near the top of the NFL in both pressures and pressure rate--which can overwhelm this OL and make
Emeka Egbuka missed Week 7 due to injury, and if he's hurt, expect this pass defense to keep Tez Johnson, Chris Godwin, and Ted Hurst in check. And given Zac Robinson isn't the best when it comes to scheming up passing concepts, the defense makes this a winnable matchup for the Falcons.
Even beyond the implications the NFC South standings, is a lot on the line in this matchup. We all know Baker Mayfield isn't the biggest Kevin Stefanski fan after the way things ended in Cleveland, and I'm sure Robinson is looking to prove the Falcons shouldn't have let him go for Tommy Rees.
So this is going to be a tough matchup, and given how evenly-matched these two teams are on both sides of the football despite their records, it won't be an easy one for the Falcons to win--but it's very important they do and get to 4-4 entering the overseas clash with the Bengals.
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