Entering Week 8, the Atlanta Falcons' run defense was one of the biggest pleasant surprises in the NFL to date. They had the fourth-best run defense in the NFL, but the loss to the Buccaneers might have exposed Atlanta's early success against the run was fool's gold and due to an early schedule.
In heavy rain in Tampa Bay, the embarrassing 16-0 loss saw the Falcons struggle to run the football, but even worse was they failed to stop the run. That saw their division rivals run the ball 56 times for 324 yards and a touchdown (5.8 YPC), as they had no answers for Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell.
Atlanta missed a season-high 16 tackles on Sunday and the Bucs had so much success on the ground that they didn't even have to throw the ball, and they became the first team to win a game without completing a pass since 1974. They even had 10 runs go for north of 10 yards, and it was a chunk gain more often than not.
It was a pathetic showing from Kevin Stefanski and company in every aspect in Week 8, but the run defense was perhaps the worst-performer of the day. They went from fourth-best at stoping the run and allowing just 88.9 yards per game to 19th, where they're now giving up 118.3 rush yards a game.
But in Week 9 against the Bengals, they're being hit with the perfect recipe to bounce back in an overseas clash in Madrid.
The Falcons' run defense has a recipe for success against the Bengals
Thankfully, the Bengals don't have much of a run game for the Falcons to worry about. The Cincinnati offense is second in points per game because of their league-leading passing offense, so slowing down Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and of course, Joe Burrow is going to be the more pressing issue.
But the run game is nothing to worry about, as they average just 80.3 rush yards per game and have broke the century mark in just two of their seven games. I know they're as pass-happy as it gets, but they basically have one of the least efficient rushing attacks, which means they have to win in the air.
The only teams with less rushing yards per game are the Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders, and the Bengals rank 27th in EPA per rush. And their supposed RB1, Chase Brown has struggled this year, as he's averaged just 3.6 yards per carry and is more effective as a pass-catcher.
Samaje Perine, the change-of-pace back in Cincinnati isn't much better, as he's averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry and doesn't offer much outside of his value in short-yardage situations. So as long as Atlanta can keep the passing game in check, a less-than-potent run game should be easy to stop.
It helps to not have to run the ball that much when you have this talent in the pass game,. but it's telling they can't run the ball well even behind an improved offensive line.
Since the Falcons' run defense showed some noticeable holes in the loss to the Bucs last week, but facing a worse run game should help them return to form.
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