The Atlanta Falcons opened the season with losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Carolina Panthers, including an ugly 34-3 home loss that dropped the Falcons to 0-2. Their offense had yet to reach the red zone, Cooper Rush had been benched and ESPN ranked Atlanta No. 31 in its Week 3 power rankings.
Then Michael Penix Jr. returned. The Falcons went into Lambeau Field on a short week and completely flipped the script, beating the Green Bay Packers 35-14 as Bijan Robinson ran for 194 yards and two touchdowns, Drake London caught nine passes for 194 yards, and Atlanta piled up 498 yards of offense.
Now that win does not erase the problems that showed up during the first two weeks. It does, however, put the Falcons right back into the NFC South race. Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans are all 1-2, while Tampa Bay sits at 0-3. And the division just got even more vulnerable.
The Atlanta Falcons have a real shot to win the NFC South in 2026
Tampa Bay already has a major problem at quarterback. Baker Mayfield will miss at least three weeks after suffering a dislocated thumb in the Buccaneers' Week 3 loss to Minnesota. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels is expected to take over against Green Bay.
Meanwhile the Panthers placed Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson on injured reserve Wednesday, meaning both of their top-two cornerbacks must miss at least four games. That is a brutal development for a team that just beat Atlanta by 31 points.
The Saints are 1-2 after losing 35-27 to the Las Vegas Raiders, and they have already shown how inconsistent they can be.
Suddenly, the Falcons just need to take advantage of a group of teams dealing with major questions of their own. That starts Monday night in New Orleans.
A win would move Atlanta to 2-2 and give the Falcons a head to head victory over another NFC South contender. The schedule then gets much tougher with Baltimore, Chicago and San Francisco, but Atlanta eventually gets back to the division with games against Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Carolina still ahead.
The Falcons finally have the QB they needed to compete in the NFC South
The biggest reason this suddenly feels possible is Michael Penix Jr..
Penix helped Atlanta produce 35 points against a Packers team that had entered the game 1-1. Robinson and London took advantage of the opportunities in front of them, while the Falcons defense held Green Bay to 14 points.
That is a much different team than the one that walked into Week 3 with an 0-2 record and an argument for the NFL's basement.
There is still plenty for Atlanta to prove. The Packers win was one game, and the upcoming stretch against the Ravens, Bears and 49ers will provide a much tougher test.
But the Falcons do not need to win all of those games to stay alive in the NFC South. They need to stack division wins when the opportunities arrive.
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