The Atlanta Falcons are headed to Lambeau FIeld to face the Green Bay Packers on primetime tomorrow night, and while the return of Michael Penix Jr. is Atlanta's primary storyline entering Week 3, the Packers have struggled to adjust to life without one of their top players: star RB Josh Jacobs.
Jacobs was placed on the commissioner's exempt list following an alleged domestic dispute where he was charged with two misdemeanors for battery and criminal damage to property. The NFL is still investigating the matter before deciding on a possible suspension, so he has yet to play all season.
The good news for the Falcons is that with Jacobs on the sideline, there is a visible advantage for the visitors. Between Kaleb Johnson, MarShawn Lloyd, and Chris Brooks, Green Bay's run game has struggled to get anything going to the point that it's been holding their offense back because of it.
The Atlanta Falcons should have no trouble stopping a Josh Jacobs-less Packers run game
Without their three-time Pro Bowl running back, the Packers have felt the weight of his absence. Through two games, they rank dead last in the NFL with just 64.5 rushing yards per game, are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry, and they have yet to score a rushing touchdown on the season.
Moreover, the Packers are also last in the league in offensive EPA per rush (-0.43), and they're facing an Atlanta defensive line that's improved considerably at defending the run compared to last season. The Falcons are currently allowing the least rushing yards per game in the NFL through two weeks (63.0), while their -0.29 defensive EPA per rush is second in the league only to the Las Vegas Raiders.
Who would've seen that coming after last year? Brandon Dorlus has looked as good as ever, Maason Smith has already made his presence felt, and both Divine Deablo and Kendal Daniels have stepped up in this area--and Lloyd and Johnson aren't more effective than Jaylen Warren and Chuba Hubbard, the RB1s this defense faced up against the last two weeks.
While Green Bay clearly misses having a bruiser like Josh Jacobs who can thrive in short-yardage situations and fight for yards after contact, his off-field situation and the lack of a true RB1 is not the only reason their run game has struggled.
A big reason for why Lloyd and Johnson have struggled so much is the offensive line, which will now be without star OT Zach Bako-Bewele for the rest of the season. Plus, Aaron Banks has been bad, and starting Jacob Monk and Anthony Belton at RG and RT is not exactly a recipe for success--Jacobs or not.
And if you don't want to hear it from me, take it from a Packers expert. I spoke to Lombardi Ave site expert Freddie Boston about Jacobs' absence and Green Bay's woes in the run game, and why MarShawn Lloyd and Kaleb Johnson have struggled to get things going.
"MarShawn Lloyd made some bad reads against the Jets and missed some potentially big gains," Boston said. "Vision might be his biggest issue right now. Kaleb Johnson looked more threatening."
"Neither running back had much to work with, though, and it comes back to the offensive line woes. Josh Jacobs is one of the best in the league at fighting for yards after contact, and the Packers miss that. Lloyd needs to improve, but it's tough work running behind this line."
Containing Jordan Love and this passing offense is a separate concern, especially without A.J. Terrell, but given the way the Packers' rushing attack has looked lifeless without Josh Jacobs, the Falcons can pull off the upset long as the run game is kept in check on early downs and short-yardage situations-- especially given the way Jeff Ulbrich has generated pressure with this pass-rush.
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