The day most Falcons fans have been waiting for is finally here: Michael Penix Jr. is back from his torn ACL and is going to start in Week 3 against the Packers. After 10 months of rehab, a month of 11-on-11 practices, and a QB controversy nobody saw coming, the Atlanta Falcons can rest a little easier.
With Penix back, it means the Falcons don't have to rely on Cooper Rush and Jack Strand to lead them into Lambeau Field on primetime, and Kevin Stefanski may finally get some solid QB play. But there's a misconception brewing, since just because he's back doesn't mean everything is settled.
Yes, the bigger mess at quarterback is essentially over since competent QB play should be in the cards, but Michael Penix Jr. has a lot to prove still. Atlanta still has no long-term answer under center, and now that Penix is healthy, his goal should shift to proving to this staff he can be the franchise guy.
The Atlanta Falcons still have to evaluate if Michael Penix Jr. is the future
Penix gained a lot of favor during his time on the sideline just because of how bad Rush (and by extension Strand) were these last two weeks--specifically on Sunday. But it doesn't change the facts. He's 12 starts deep with a 4-8 record as a starter, and that doesn't even consider the injury history.
This is the 26-year-old's third ACL tear in seven years, so of course it should take him some time to feel comfortable again. Penix hasn't taken a hit since last November, and with the way this offensive line has looked through two weeks, he could be in for a long night against this Green Bay pass rush.
Here's the thing: if the Dirty Birds continue losing games or he doesn't return from this knee injury the same player, Stefanski and this staff won't hesitate to make a change. Tua Tagovailoa (once he returns from injury) will be waiting in the wings, so it's not like they don't have a quality option to replace him.
The former top-10 pick has more than just a starting job on the line though: his future in Atlanta could come into question. The Falcons' front office must decide if they want to pick up his fifth-year option, and he'll only get to complete his rookie deal if he takes a decent-sized leap in this new system.
After a fifth-year option would come a long-term extension, and he clearly hasn't earned one of those. The other equation to note here is the 2027 NFL Draft, because Penix taking a leap would dissuade Atlanta from drafting a QB this April, but if not, Stefanski won't hesitate to draft his hand-picked guy--and Arch Manning or Dante Moore stealing your job is a lot scarier than Tua Tagovailoa.
Michael Penix Jr. has shown flashes of potential, but not enough. He can make all the throws you want a QB to make and has all the arm talent in the world. But that doesn't automatically make someone a franchise quarterback. His return marks his final shot to put it all together: it's now time to sink or swim.
If Penix is good, this team is talented enough to compete for a playoff spot, but if he's above average they can make the playoffs--even with the 0-2 start. It's now his job to ensure this season doesn't go off the rails, but he also has the personal agenda of proving he's a quality starter in this league.
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