In three starts this season, Michael Penix Jr. has been everything the Atlanta Falcons could've hoped for. The difference versus when he's in the lineup compared to when he's not has been night and day, and for the first time in his two-plus seasons with the team he looks like a real franchise quarterback.
He's near the top of the NFL in several offensive statistics, including EPA per play, EPA success rate, yards per attempt, and play-action EPA per play. And not to mention, in the three games he's started this season, the Falcons are averaging 34.3 points per game. It goes to show you what a real offensive staff has done for his development.
However, that doesn't mean that he doesn't have red flags. For starters, the alarming injury history will always be there, but that's not the only issue to surface this season. A lot of the success Penix has had has been with a clean pocket, but as soon as a defense sends pressure, he starts to crumble.
According to ESPN research, the former top-10 pick is just 1-for-16 (6%) when pressured this season, and is the only quarterback under a 30% completion rate when pressured. And while his un-pressed EPA per dropback is second among QBs, when pressured, his EPA per dropback is dead last.
Obviously, teams are going to start figuring that out and dial up more pressure on Penix after what happened against the Ravens, but that comes with a silver lining. As the Falcons host the Chicago Bears this weekend, they don't have much of a pass-rush to generate pressure on him to begin with.
The Falcons are facing a Bears' pass-rush that's completely shorthanded
For starters, the Bears' pass-rush hasn't been anything to phone home about even when at full strength, but the good news for Penix and the Falcons is that they won't be in Week 6. This group is going to be stripped down to brittle bones, as they're missing both of their two top pass-rushers.
Chicago just lost Montez Sweat to a two-game suspension after he violated the NFL's performing-enhacing substances, and even before the suspension, he wasn't doing much. He's coming off a 10-sack campaign, yet he's been getting out-played by Austin Booker this year, which is incredibly sad.
And he's not even the only one.
The Bears lost their other starting pass-rusher, Dayo Odeyingbo due to a quad injury against the Packers, and Ben Johnson already said he'll miss time. This means the Bears are going to trot out a pass-rush led by Booker and ex-Falcon Grady Jarrett, and that won't exactly scare the Dirty Birds.
The offensive line has mostly held up this year too, so it's not like Penix will have to face much resistance from the group Chicago is sending. It's not like Dennis Allen is going to work this magic like Jesse Minter did with the Ravens last week--and that means the 26-year-old should have time to stand tall in the pocket and do what he does best--dice up this defense.
When he's given the time and isn't facing a ton of pressure, Michael Penix Jr. has been dropping dimes. So while improving under pressure is the next step in his development, we won't have to worry about this as much this week.
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