The Atlanta Falcons have several major contract decisions looming this offseason. And while the world waits on whether they will sign tight end Kyle Pitts to a long-term extension or franchise tag him before next week's deadline, I am more interested in what they do with wide receiver Drake London.
London, the eighth overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, is entering the 2026 season playing on his fifth-year option. That option will pay him a guaranteed $16,817,000. Since 2024 London ranks 8th in receptions (168), 9th in receiving yards (2,190), tied for 5th in touchdowns (16), and 9th in yards per route run (2.33) among all receivers in the NFL.
Those stats will undoubtedly get London paid. The only question is when. Based on their historical cash spending trends, the Falcons will be active this offseason. And locking up London long-term could be a part of that plan.
What will a long-term extension for Drake London in Atlanta look like?
Finding London's Value
Using that two-year window as the valuation sample size and factoring in his age and draft pedigree, here are his three closest comparisons since 2020.
Player | Age | Draft Round | Catches | Yards | TD | yds/rr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drake London (2024-2025) | 25.1 | 1 | 168 | 2,190 | 16 | 2.33 |
DeVonta Smith (2022-2023) | 25.8 | 1 | 176 | 2,262 | 14 | 1.89 |
Terry McLaurin (2020-2021) | 27.0 | 3 | 164 | 2,171 | 9 | 1.84 |
Brandon Aiyuk (2022-2023) | 26.5 | 1 | 153 | 2,357 | 15 | 2.41 |
London is younger than the other three, with the best draft pedigree. Among this group he is second in catches, third in yards, first in touchdowns and second in yards per route run. Out of the three comparisons, Smith signed for the lowest amount in terms of APY as a percent of cap. His $25 million per year was 9.88% of the 2024 salary cap of $255.4 million. He was also Philadelphia's #2 receiver, behind A.J. Brown.
McLaurin and Aiyuk were both seen as #1 receivers for their respective teams. McLaurin's $23.2 million APY was 11.1% of the 2022 salary cap, while Aiyuk's $30 million APY was 11.7% of 2024's $255.4 million salary cap. These two will likely be the comps that London's camp will be citing in negotiations with the Falcons.
Using the average of those two marks and applying to an estimated $305 million salary cap puts London's market in the neighborhood of $34.75 million per year. That would put him just $250 thousand per year behind Justin Jefferson for the 2nd-highest paid receiver in the NFL.
At that close of a proximity, London's representation would push to clear Jefferson. I'd venture that would put him at $35.25 million per year over four years for a total of $141 million. Adding in the fifth-year option he is already under contract for, it would make his total deal five years and $157,817,000 with an effective APY of $31,563,400
At that point, J efferson's deal would become the comp that London's team would benchmark for the rest of the contract. I would estimate his full guarantees would come in at $112 million with full guarantees clocking in at $90,817,000. Both of those numbers would just edge out Jefferson's contract with the Vikings.
London would also want to exceed Jefferson on cashflows. He could achieve that goal like this:
Year | Cashflow | Running New Cash |
|---|---|---|
2026 | $37,817,000 ($21,000,000 in new money) | $21,000,000 |
2027 | $30,000,000 | $51,000,000 |
2028 | $30,000,000 | $81,000,000 |
2029 | $31,000,000 | $112,000,000 |
2030 | $29,000,000 | $141,000,000 |
This is a lot of money. But there is no doubt the Falcons want to retain their budding superstar. And London will have quite a bit of leverage to extract close to this kind of money if Atlanta doesn't offer him a near-market setting deal like this.
The franchise tag for wide receivers this year is $28,824,000. That number should clear $31,000,000 by 2026. If the Falcons just go year-to-year on the franchise tag with London they will pay at least $68,200,000 from 2027 to 2028. The effective APY of that option is $34,100,000. That's close to the APY of a long-term extension. And that doesn't include the opportunity cost of waiting and London's price going up with a rising salary cap.Atlanta should strike while the iron is hot.