Atlanta Falcons: Is Devin Hester the Team’s 2nd Best WR?
Roddy White is the best wide receiver in Atlanta Falcons franchise history. A former first round pick, White holds every receiving record for the Falcons – 1st in receptions, 1st in yards, equal 1st in touchdown receptions. He has over 100 more receptions than the next best WR, Terrance Mathis, and over 2000 more receiving yards than anyone in Falcons history.
White will undeniably be inducted into the Falcons Ring of Honor upon retirement, and some suggest he will make the Hall of Fame. Despite struggling with drops early in his career, every Atlanta Falcons fan knows that he has been one of the most hardworking and professional on-field players they ever have had. He played an instrumental role in the development of QB Matt Ryan and has endorsed and assisted in the grooming of Julio Jones into the team’s #1 receiving option. Despite sharing targets with another dominant receiver, White has continued to put up great numbers since the arrival of Jones in 2011. However, at 32 years old and coming off his first major injury of his pro career, is Roddy White no longer the Falcons second best wide receiver?
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The Atlanta Falcons acquired Devin Hester in the 2014 offseason, signing the NFL’s best kick returner to a three year deal. Despite having a single catch or carry in 2013 for the Bears, coach Mike Smith and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter saw a lot of potential in the speedy Hester as an offensive threat, and the success he has enjoyed on offense is one of the most pleasant surprises of the Falcons 2014 so far. The Falcons knew they were signing a phenomenal special teams weapon, but not many predicted the offensive explosion Hester brought to Atlanta. Despite playing far fewer snaps, and being listed as the team’s 4th WR, Devin Hester has proven this season that he is as big of an offensive weapon as he is on kick returns, and his excellent play may see him moved up to the Falcons #2 receiving option, ahead of Falcons hero Roddy White.
2014 Statistics
Games Played
Receptions
Rec Yards
YPC
Touchdowns
20+ Yard
Snap Count
Roddy White
3
14
187
13.4
2
3
197 (72%)
Devin Hester
4
12
196
16.3
2 (1 rush)
4
99 (36%)
Based on the table above, it is clear the production for the two receivers has been fairly similar. Whilst Roddy White did miss the week 3 games against the Bucs, his numbers in his three starts have been solid. White averages a healthy 13.4 yards per catch and, of his 14 catches, 11 have gone for 1st downs. Meanwhile, Hester is having a career year, and is on pace to equal or better his career highs in receiving yards, yards per catch, touchdowns and receptions over 20 yards. At first glance, their numbers are fairly close – Hester has played one more game but this is offset by his excellent yards per catch average. However, once you factor in snaps played, Hester’s production is unbelievably good. Hester has played only half the snaps that White has, and yet the numbers are so comparable. Through 4 games, there is a large enough sample size to indicate how the Falcons plan on using their personnel, but let’s extrapolate Hester’s numbers and see where he would operate were he on the same snap count as Roddy White.
Extrapolated Statistics
Games Played
Receptions
Rec Yards
YPC
Touchdowns
20+ Yard
Snap Count
Roddy White
3
14
187
13.4
2
3
197 (72%)
Devin Hester
4
23
390
16.9
3
(1 rush, 2 rec)
8
197 (72%)
Whilst by no means a perfect measure, Hester’s hypothetical stats with an increased snap count are phenomenal. In his 9 NFL seasons, 390 yards would represent his fourth highest total for a full season, so this mark through four weeks is exceptional. Similarly, Hester shows more chance of breaking an explosive play, and this is reflected in the 20+ yard stat. Although I’m not suggesting that Hester could maintain his current averages were he on an increased snap count, the extrapolated numbers do make you think – is Hester a better receiving threat than White?
The answer, unfortunately, is a both yes and no. Roddy White has struggled this season in several areas. Firstly, he is dealing with a lingering hamstring injury that has curbed his production and limited his ability to practice. Secondly, White has seemingly suffered a decline in ability with age. Per fellow Blogging Dirty writer Sunny Minhas, in week 4 Matt Ryan completed 81% of passes not thrown to Roddy White, but was only operating at 28% (4/14) on passes to White. White himself has stated that he owes the team a touchdown, saying “”I have to play better, I had two drops in that (week 4) game.”
The answer, unfortunately, is a both yes and no. Roddy White has struggled this season in several areas, but part of Hester’s strength comes in his limited usage.
Whilst White has been sure-handed in the recent years, he has suffered from drops this season, and one of his two receiving touchdowns came on a blown defensive play when two defensive backs covered Julio Jones, leaving White to walk untouched into the endzone. That said, he is still a crisp route runner with a full route tree under his belt, and is equally a threat over the middle and outside the numbers. He is undeniably more talented as a receiver when compared with Devin Hester, but is going through a slow start to the season. With a strong work ethic, and the awareness that he needs to improve, White should bounce back soon.
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As for Hester, part of his strength comes in his limited usage. Defenses will never have the personnel to cover someone with the speed and elusiveness of Hester, as he can break the tackles of DBs but will outrun any linebacker. By trotting him out occasionally, Hester gives the Falcons an element of surprise on offense, and can also ensure he gets matched up on a poor coverage option. Keeping someone with the blistering pace of Hester fresh can also do wonders, as he is a threat to turn the corner and find the endzone on any touch – a threat which is only compounded by a tired defense. Ultimately, whilst his extrapolated numbers are amazing, Hester’s limited usage is probably the correct way to manage a player who has other vital roles on the team beyond his ability on the offense. Ultimately, White is still the #2 receiving option for the Falcons, and will look to improve in the coming weeks. Hester, meanwhile, has been a great addition to an already stacked offense and, whilst his numbers far exceed White’s on limited snaps, is being managed fairly effectively by the coaching staff.
What do you think about the Falcons receiver depth? Does Hester deserve more snaps, or will Roddy White bounce back to his All-Pro form? Comment below, and stay tuned to Blogging Dirty for more Falcons news, analysis and game day coverage.