NFL picks Week 11: Falcons-Colts and every other game

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Nov 15, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) reacts on the sidelines during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Chiefs won 29-13. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens (-1)

I really don’t trust Baltimore (2-7), and despite back-to-back losses for St. Louis (4-5), I expect Todd Gurley to control the game and make life difficult for the Ravens. The Rams defense is impressive, and it will be able to contain a banged up Ravens offense.

Pick: St. Louis 28, Baltimore 13

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-8.5)

It’s hard to pick against Carolina (9-0) against anyone, particularly at home. Kirk Cousins won’t replicate his perfect passer rating in last week’s victory over the Saints, and Washington (4-5) drops a tough road game.

Pick: Carolina 29, Washington 17

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears (EVEN)

It would be easy to pick Chicago (4-5) after some outstanding performances. Denver (7-2) has been awful the past two weeks, and could be without Peyton Manning. But this feels like a trap I’ve fallen into in recent weeks, and I’m picking the Broncos to bounce back. Just.

Pick: Denver 20, Chicago 19

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins (EVEN)

Tony Romo is back, Tony Romo is back, Tony Romo is back. And he’s getting the Cowboys (2-7) first win since Week 2. Bad luck Dolphins (4-5).

Pick: Dallas 23, Miami 20

Oakland Raiders (-1) at Detroit Lions

Detroit (2-7) may have snapped the Wisconsin streak, but I don’t think they ‘won’, they just didn’t lose. This week, they will lose. Oakland (4-5) is good.

Pick: Oakland 27, Detroit 21

New York Jets at Houston Texans (NO LINE)

The Texans (4-5) stunned the previously undefeated Bengals on Monday Night Football, but they will run into a tough test against a Jets (5-4) team looking to bounce back. If Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t play, it’s different, but if he suits up the Jets win.

Pick: New York 20, Houston 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)

This is the perfect game for Philadelphia (4-5) to bounce back in, even with Mark Sanchez suiting up. This Bucs (4-5) isn’t as good as its record suggests.

Pick: Philadelphia 27, Tampa Bay 14

Next: Late games and primetime