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Falcons 2016 Draft: Trading down makes more sense than ever

By Freddie Boston

Feb 24, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Atlanta Falcons coach Dan Quinn speaks to the media during the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 24, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Atlanta Falcons coach Dan Quinn speaks to the media during the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports /
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For the Atlanta Falcons, trading down in the 2016 NFL Draft makes too much sense.

The more swings you have, the better the odds of hitting a home run. It’s a simple rule of thumb, but one that makes perfect sense.

For the Atlanta Falcons, five picks simply won’t cut it. It’s next to impossible to find an impact starter in the seventh round, which would mean the Falcons would need to hit a home run on their first four picks to see some significant improvements to the roster in 2016.

With needs across the roster ranging from defensive end to inside linebacker and safety, the Falcons need to take as many swings as possible to fill the roster with talent as well as depth. It would be ideal to select at No. 17 — or even better, trade up. Yet after surrendering one pick to land guard Andy Levitre from Tennessee a year ago and another for pumping fake crowd noise into the Georgia Dome, the Falcons don’t have such a luxury.

If a prospect like defensive end Shaq Lawson or defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins falls to No. 17, only then would it make sense to stand pat and select one of the two. But in the more likely scenario in which both are off the board at No. 17, the Falcons should look for a dance partner to move back with.

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Many draft analysts project there to be around 30-35 players with a first-round grade. Unless you’re picking inside the top-10, moving back could be a smart move to make. Of course, striking a deal is easier said than done. A team will only trade up if a target they love is there to get and likely will be gone by the time their original pick comes around.

But looking at the teams set to pick after Atlanta, not many obvious candidates spring to mind. If quarterback Paxton Lynch falls, a team like Denver (No. 31) might look to move ahead of the New York Jets, but Los Angeles’ move from No. 15 to No. 1 could cause two or more quarterbacks to be selected before Atlanta hit the clock.

There’s little chance of teams like Seattle or Green Bay wanting to move up, although the latter could possibly have interest in Reggie Ragland, a player who would fix their biggest need on defense at inside linebacker.

Next: Three players the Falcons could trade down for

If the Falcons can find a partner to swap picks with an acquire some extra ammunition, they should do it. There will be enough talent later on to help fill holes on the roster.