To say the Atlanta Falcons' offense has struggled to start 2026 would be an understatement. Atlanta is dead last in scoring, having scored just 16 points through two games. The obvious culprit is the mess of a quarterback situation, with Cooper Rush being forced into action and performing as expected for a third-string quarterback.
The Falcons got news that they were heavily anticipating, Michael Penix Jr. is back and will start against the Packers on Thursday Night Football tonight. While his long-term future is still very much uncertain, he is a massive upgrade under center for now.
With Penix back in the starting lineup, Atlanta should, at the very least, have a formidable offense. If the Falcons are going to right the ship offensively, there are three key stats they need to make major strides on going forward.
Three stats the Falcons offense has too turn around
1. Turnover Differential
Aside from averaging just eight points per game, Atlanta's turnover differential is the most embarrassing stat. The Falcons have a -6 turnover differential, the worst in the NFL, which isn't surprising. Now, the defense only forcing one takeaway through two games is a factor here, but the main problem is seven giveaways on offense.
The quarterbacks were responsible for all seven turnovers, with Rush accounting for five and Jack Strand having the other two. Atlanta already has a shorthanded defense, and giving the opponent short fields only makes their job harder.
The Falcons are capable of being a potent offense, but they need to take care of the ball. Asking Penix to perform at an elite level coming off a torn ACL is a lot, but that's not what Atlanta needs. If he can just avoid mistakes, then the strong supporting cast can help him out.
2. Sacks Taken
Staying on the topic of negative plays, sacks have been just as much an issue for the Falcons' offense as turnovers. Through Week 2, Atlanta has allowed seven sacks, tied for third-worst in all of football. The Falcons have an offensive line that is more than capable in pass protection; Penix just needs to get the ball out and keep the offense on schedule.
Sacks can be just as damaging to offensive production as turnovers, since they derail drives. It's hard to have consistent success when stuck in bad down-and-distance situations. Sacks hurt Atlanta's offense in particular because getting stuck in obvious passing downs limits its best player, Bijan Robinson.
The Falcons' best path offensively is through Robinson and the ground game. Avoiding sacks and staying on schedule allows Robinson to be fully utilized and takes pressure off a quarterback returning from a major injury. Getting better down-and-distance also allows for Kevin Stefanski's offense to be more unpredictable and get better looks for chunk plays downfield.
3. Third Down Conversion Rate
While sacks and turnovers have been major problems for the Falcons, not being able to extend drives has also been an issue. Atlanta has converted on just 24% of third downs so far this season, the third-lowest rate in the NFL. While getting Penix back should help, the Falcons were also the third-worst third-down offense in football last year.
Being able to move the chains gives the defense more time to rest and makes it easier for Atlanta to control games. Unless the Falcons can rely on chunk plays, they need to be able to consistently pick up first downs to be consistently productive.
Avoiding sacks plays a huge role in third-down offense, since it's much harder to convert on third-and-15 than third-and-3. Staying on schedule offensively is the first part of getting back on track, but Atlanta also needs to move the sticks once on third down.
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