The Atlanta Falcons enter the 2026 season as a team with an array of possibilities on the table. They have the talent to win as many as nine or 10 games and break their playoff drought, but it also wouldn't be surprising if their QB tandem crashes and burns and they win just six or seven games.
The Falcons are talented enough to win the NFC South, but Kevin Stefanski is facing a battle to escape the gulag. Between three straight primetime games and three straight NFC South games to end 2026, the schedule release gave them an unfavorable draw consisting of several elite opponents.
Some people aren't believers, but Atlanta should give enough reason to believe. If they won eight games twice with Raheem Morris, there's no telling what they can accomplish with Stefanski. But if they want to make the playoffs for the first time since Matt Ryan was their QB, they need to win these three make-or-break games.
Three games the Falcons must win in order to break their playoff drought
Week 2: vs. Carolina Panthers
The Dirty Birds kick off the season with a tough road bout against the Steelers, where they are winless, but things get even tougher in Week 2. Their home opener is against the reigning NFC South champion Carolina Panthers, who backed up the brinks truck to improve their defense this offseason.
If the Falcons fall to 0-1 in Pittsburgh, they cannot afford to lose to a Panthers team who they haven't beaten since September of 2024. They swept them last season, and entering a short week on Thursday Night Football against the Packers, heading into Lambeau Field at 0-2 risks Atlanta starting 0-3--and that's momentum they need to sustain entering Stefanski's first primetime clash
Week 10: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I debated putting the 49ers' game here because of the return of Raheem Morris, but instead, this has to be the Chiefs' game. Not only will it be the Falcons' first game back in the United States after hosting the Cincinnati Bengals in Madrid, it will also be their final game before the Week 11 bye.
So despite traveling overseas in Week 9, they will not have a bye week in Week 10. Instead, they face one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL despite having to re-adjust to playing back at home. Oh, and Patrick Mahomes will almost certainly be back from his torn ACL in time for this matchup.
The Chiefs missed the playoffs last year, and are no slouch. So given the tough stretch Atlanta has before them, the Falcons need to win this one for momentum going into the bye.
Week 16: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I thought about dedicating this spot to the three consecutive NFC South matchups the Falcons will end the season with, because that will truly define how the season turns out in Atlanta. The division is wide open, so all three could be must-win games, but that starts with the first of them in Week 16.
After what happened when they came to MBS in 2025 and the Zac Robinson and Baker Mayfield revenge games, I'm ready to see this team knock Baker's fragile ego en route to breaking their playoff drought. And vindicating the selection to take Zachariah Branch over Ted Hurst would be nice too.
Other than the Falcons, the Bucs are the most talented team in the NFC South, and I expect them to be the biggest threat to the division title. For that reason, the importance of the Saints and Panthers' matchups hinge on the Bucs' result, which will ultimately determine if playoffs are in the cards. Unfortunately this game isn't on primetime.
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