The biggest burning question of the Atlanta Falcons' offseason hasn't been if Michael Penix Jr. or Tua Tagovailoa will be the starting quarterback, but what to expect in Year 1 under Kevin Stefanski. Stefanski has been tasked with resetting the culture as Atlanta's 20th head coach in team history.
Stefanski has been a mixed bag across the last few seasons. In his first year coaching the Cleveland Browns, he led them to their first playoff win in 26 years and nabbed two Coach of the Year awards in his first four years with a franchise that was one of the NFL's most consistent losers before him.
However, the last two seasons told a very different story. Across 2024 and 2025, the Browns went a combined 8-26, and he was fired. It's clear the 43-year-old is a good coach, but you also can't argue that Cleveland was right to pursue a change. He enjoyed some high highs and some super low lows.
But Atlanta is another story. He'll have much more talent, especially on offense, at his disposal and a superior QB competition. On paper he should thrive, but let's look into how some of the past first-year coaches have done with the Falcons in order to get a benchmark of what to expect in 2026.
How have first-year head coaches fared with the Falcons historically?
Raheem Morris: 8-9 (2024)
In Raheem Morris' first season back in Atlanta, he Raheem Morris'd in a way only Morris would know how to do. The Dirty Birds jumped out to a 6-3 start and looked to be in the driver's seat in the NFC South, but wouldn't you know, the team collapsed and the playoff drought extended for another year.
The Falcons lost six of their final eight games and narrowly missed the playoffs. But Raheem got so desperate for a spark that he turned to then-rookie Michael Penix Jr. with their playoff hopes on the line. And after seeing the culture flop, it's hard to be surprised he only had one more year at the helm.
Arthur Smith: 7-10 (2021)
If you thought the Morris era was bad, you clearly never watched the Arthur Smith Falcons. Smith, or as I call him Mr. 7-10, is the modern coaching version of Jeff Fisher. And this 2021 season is the one that made it clear that Atlanta was destined to enter a rebuild after years of competing in the NFC.
This was Matt Ryan's final season as the Falcons' starting quarterback, and he and Kyle Pitts were the only players to be excited about. Calvin Ridley spent most of the year away from the team and Mike Davis was the starting running back, so this offense was in some dark days compared to now.
Smith was never particularly adept at utilizing the resources at his disposal, especially later on in his tenure, and the same could be said for this season. The only thing Smith did in 2021 was kickstart Atlanta's quarterback purgatory that still exists today which was ignited by the Ryan trade in 2022.
Dan Quinn: 8-8 (2015)
When you think of Dan Quinn (who vaguely looks like John Locke from Lost), the mind typically goes to what he accomplished after his first season with the Falcons. He was one quarter away from leading this team to a Super Bowl. But 2015 was just as frustrating, as this team should've made the playoffs if not for a major collapse.
Despite an impressive 5-0 start, they lost eight of their final 11 games that made Quinn say "hold my beer" to Morris' collapse in 2024. This team was plenty talented and should've made the playoffs, although ending the Panthers' undefeated season was just as cathartic all things considered.
And now he's on the hot seat in Washington.
Mike Smith: 11-5 (2008)
Mike Smith is the winningest coach in Falcons history, and if you look at his first season with the team, it's not hard to see why. In the wake of Bobby Petrino's resignation and Michael Vick's imprisonment, they were expected to be entering a rebuilding phase until Smith came and reset expectations.
Led by Smith and rookie Matt Ryan, the Falcons finished 11-5 and surprisingly made the playoffs. The Falcons had the NFL's sixth-best offense, as Ryan won Offensive Rookie of the Year and Smith was the Coach of the Year, which is the circumvention of expectations the 2026 Falcons badly need.
Bobby Petrino: 3-10: (2007)
Before Mike Smith turned the Falcons into perpetual competitors, fans had to live through the nightmare that was the Bobby Petrino era. Thankfully, it didn't even last a full year, as Petrino came to Atlanta to coach Michael Vick, but was stuck trotting out Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington.
The Falcons were sitting at 3-10 before Petrino resigned to coach the Arkansas Razorbacks, and to this day remains one of the worst coaches not only in franchise history, but in NFL history.
Jim L. Mora: 11-5 (2004)
Speaking of successful first-year coaches, Jim Mora and the 2004 Falcons were a rousing success. Michael Vick had the best season of his career to date, recording 902 rushing yards, which was ultimately one-upped by his 1,000-rushing yard season we saw from him two years later in 2006.
Though Atlanta had one of the NFL's worst air attacks, Vick, Warrick Dunn, and T.J. Duckett ignited the best run game in the league. And that was enough not only for the Falcons to win the NFC South, but to get all the way to the NFC Championship before the Philadelphia Eagles spoiled their run.
And the coolest part is that he's still coaching. He's set to enter his first season with Colorado State in 2026.
Dan Reeves: 7-9 (1997)
Like Dan Quinn, Dan Reeves accomplished more in his second season with the Atlanta Falcons than his first, but unlike Quinn, Reeves' Falcons got better as the season went on. Despite starting out the year 0-5, they won seven of their final 11 games before making the Super Bowl the very next year.
June Jones: 7-9 (1994)
Jerry Glanville: 5-11 (1990)
Marion Campbell: 3-12 (1987)
Dan Henning: 7-9 (1983)
Leeman Bennett: 7-7 (1977)
Marion Campbell: 4-10: (1975)
Norm Van Brocklin: 2-9 (1968)
Norb Hecker: 3-11 (1966)
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