While going over some bold predictions, FanSided’s Jason La Canfora's take on the Atlanta Falcons' quarterback battle is the opposite of what fans have been hearing: La Canfora expects Michael Penix Jr. to start more games for Atlanta in 2026 than Tua Tagovailoa.
"The Falcons were quick to jump on Tua," La Canfora wrote. "We believe they will quickly come to regret that."
That's not a knock on the signing itself. Atlanta got Tua for $1.2 million while Miami eats $54 million in dead money, so the risk is minimal. But the expectation that Tua can step in, stabilize this offense, and out-perform a motivated Penix coming off a torn ACL? La Canfora isn't buying that narrative.
"Atlanta has too many offensive weapons to be a pop-gun attack lobbing balls five yards down field, Tagovailoa's lengthy concussion history is going to make his legs even less a part of the equation as he ages."
Jason La Canfora doesn't buy the Tua Tagovailoa QB1 buzz in Atlanta
Tua was never a runner, but the threat of mobility kept defenses honest. At 28, with a concussion history that ended his time in Miami and a 2025 season that produced a career-worst 88.5 passer rating and 15 interceptions, those subtle advantages continue to erode.
One GM La Canfora spoke with put it bluntly: "Tua is like Russell Wilson two years ago. He thinks he's a starting quarterback, but he's not a starting quarterback."
That's harsh. It's also hard to argue with.
Now Michael Penix Jr.’s case isn't perfect either. A 4-8 record as a starter. Five season-ending injuries in his seven seasons as a starter. Accuracy issues on short and intermediate routes that weren't there on deep balls, where he posted a 43.8% completion rate in 2025, best among rookie quarterbacks.
But he's in year three of a four-year, $22.9 million rookie deal with a fifth-year option. The Falcons have no financial incentive to rush to Tagovailoa and every reason to see what they have in Penix.
Right now, Tua is handling first-team reps while Penix works back from November knee surgery. Still, Penix is already participating in individual and 7 on 7 work as coach Kevin Stefanski said he's "exactly where he needs to be."
"I'm running my own race," Penix said last week. "I can't look into another lane."
That's the mindset of someone who knows he'll get his shot. If Penix is healthy by September, there's no compelling argument to start the veteran on a one-year minimum contract over the 26-year-old under contract through 2028.
Stefanski may have wanted Tua. But the front office didn't build this roster around a bridge quarterback. And if La Canfora is right, the Atlanta Falcons will figure that out faster than anyone expects.
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