After months without football, week one is finally here. Once Sunday hits, it'll be 245 days, 5,903 hours, or 354,180 minutes since the heartbreaking week 18 loss against the Panthers. Since then, a lot has changed, but Falcons fans are itching to see stars like Michael Penix Jr, Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Co. in Mercedes-Benz Stadium this Sunday. Without further ado, let's dive into the Falcons' week one fantasy outlook against the Bucs.
Michael Penix Jr
The Falcons 2025 poster boy will begin his first full season as QB1 in Atlanta. Last season, Penix didn't play against the Bucs, but likely will flourish against their secondary this week. The Bucs defense was 29th in passing yards per game (248.9) last season, and allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing QB's (22.9 per game).
Unfortunately, the Bucs noticed this trend and spent their second and third round picks in the 2025 NFL draft on cornerbacks. Although the Bucs' defense may improve over the course of the season, these rookies have yet to play a snap in the NFL, so they remain unproven. Expect Penix to begin the year strong for fantasy purposes. If the Bucs' defensive woes against air attacks continue, Penix will be a fringe QB1 play in fantasy this week.
Bijan Robinson
After a phenomenal 2024 season, Robinson owners are expecting big things from the Falcons' third-year running back. Unfortunately, in week one, the Bucs present a difficult matchup to open the season. Last year, the Bucs defense was fifth in rushing yards a game (95.3) and 26th in fantasy points allowed to running backs (17.2 per game).
Last year, Robinson produced 10.70 points in week five, and 23.60 points in week eight against the Bucs. The Falcons RB1 averaged 62 rushing yards, and caught all ten of his targets over the two games.
While these stats are daunting, it's Robinson we're talking about. If the run game isn't effective early, expect a high-volume of targets thrown his way this week. As always, Robinson will remain a RB1 entering week one, but don't expect record breaking fantasy production to begin the year.
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Ahh, yes, everyone's favorite fantasy tight end. Last year, the Bucs allowed the 8th most points to tight ends (11.3) but the second most receiving yards (1,144). Over the offseason, additions of LB Hasaan Reddick, the aforementioned two rookie CB's, and ILB Anthony Walker will likely improve coverage against TE's this year.
Ironically, Pitts' two fantasy finishes were against Tampa Bay last season. In week five, Pitts caught seven of eight targets for 88 yards, producing 15.8 points. In week eight, Pitts caught four of five targets for 91 yards and two touchdowns, producing 26.10 points.
It would take a few weeks to consider Pitts a locked-in TE1, but with Darnell Mooney potentially out, the Falcons' don't have many better pass-catching options. Pitts is a flex play with a high ceiling entering week one.