The Atlanta Falcons have made it clear what kind of football team they want to be under Kevin Stefanski. Run the ball, stop the run, and let that physicality in the trenches dictate the game.
But with the Kansas City Chiefs coming to town on Sunday, the Falcons are about to face their biggest test of that identity yet…
The matchup was supposed to feature the NFL's two leading rushers in Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Walker III, with just eight yards separating them atop the league's rushing leaderboard. Robinson leads with 880 yards through nine games, while Walker,, has 872 yards in eight games.
And while both running backs are having outstanding seasons, the bigger story is how their teams have performed around them. Kansas City enters Sunday at 6-2, averaging 137.8 rushing yards per game while allowing just 97.5. Atlanta, meanwhile, sits at 3-6, averaging nearly the same production on the ground (137.2 yards) but surrendering 118.8 rushing yards per game
For a Falcons team that has built its identity around winning in the trenches, that difference is hard to ignore. However, the running back matchup was supposed to be what dictates the outcome, but things changed a little.
The Chiefs are holding their star RB out in Week 10 after Walker suffered a groin injury in practice on Thursday where he was also a non-participant on Friday, opting to think about his long-term health instead. And that makes returning to what works in the trenches all the more crucial.
The Falcons have lost their identity in the trenches in recent weeks
The Atlanta Falcons started the year looking like one of the most formidable run-heavy teams in the league. After four games, Atlanta had put together a 724-193 rushing yard advantage over their opponents, putting them into the identity that Stefanski had envisioned when he took the job.
However, things have not gone so well since.
In the last four games, the opposition have dominated the Falcons, putting together a 753-354 rushing yard advantage. This reached a low point during their game against Tampa Bay in week 8, where they gave up 324 rushing yards and became the first team since 1974 to lose despite not giving up a single completed pass.
This has been a real concern for a team who try to dominate games with their running game. If they want to be seen as a true run-heavy team, they need to find ways to run the ball effectively despite the opposition knowing what they are going to do.
Across the first month of the season, they allowed the least rushing yards per game in the NFL, but across Weeks 5-9, they've allowed the most. So their identity has to be more successful than it has been in across the last month--and even without Walker, that won't come easy.
Chiefs are a great test of if the Atlanta Falcons will return to what works
The Chiefs are a great test for the Atlanta Falcons as they have performed much better in the style of football that Atlanta wants to play.
Kenneth Walker has been brilliant since joining them, averaging an NFL-high 109 rushing yards per game and has added another dimension to their offense. But in his absence, the Chiefs will turn to fifth-round rookie Emmett Johnson as the feature back, a matchup that is more favorable to Atlanta.
Johnson has impressed at points this season, breaking off his share of big plays, but this is his first NFL start. This makes winning this battle in terms of the ground game and stopping the run easier, but still no cakewalk.
The Falcons have spent much of the season talking about their identity, and with Bijan Robinson leading the NFL in rushing, they certainly have the personnel to make that vision work…
But individual production only goes so far when the team can't consistently win the battle up front. Because if the Falcons can't establish the run or stop Kansas City from doing the same, it's going to be awfully difficult to beat a Chiefs team with enough talent to beat Atlanta in a multitude of ways.
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