Football fans everywhere were perplexed when the Atlanta Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, They had just paid Kirk Cousins $180 million in free agency six weeks before, yet Terry Fontenot thought he was pulling a fast one on the rest of the NFL with this choice.
So naturally, this has since blown up in Atlanta's face. Penix has been relegated to just 12 NFL starts, is fresh off of another serious knee injury, and could be at risk of losing his starting job to Tua Tagovailoa now that Cousins is in Las Vegas because he hasn't looked the part of a franchise QB.
Part of why the Falcons are in this QB purgatory is because of Penix, so what if they never drafted him? This was a scenario that Locked on Falcons host Aaron Freeman discussed during his latest podcast episode-- and the clear takeaway is that the Dirty Birds would be better off without him.
Would the Atlanta Falcons be better off having never drafted Michael Penix Jr.?
Let's take a trip down the rabbit hole and explore this alternate reality. At the time, it was pretty common knowledge had Atlanta not drafted Penix, they would've instead taken UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu--who landed with the Indianapolis Colts seven picks later-- which Freeman outlined.
Freeman (and I) think that the Falcons likely would've made the playoffs had they not benched Cousins for Penix late in 2024. He lost two of his first three starts, so even though Cousins struggled, all he needed to do was knock off the Washington Commanders and Carolina Panthers in overtime.
Drafting Latu over Penix also would've held more bearing in 2025, as with Cousins as the 17-game starter, I doubt they enjoy as many late-game collapses as they did. All they needed was one more win to make the playoffs, and given how he looked down the stretch, I'm confident they'd get that.
Taking Latu over Penix means Fontenot doesn't trade back into the first round of the 2025 Draft for James Pearce Jr.-- because if they make the playoffs in 2024, they are less desperate to improve the pass rush--especially if they're still able to come away with Jalon Walker a few picks later than reality.
While no Pearce trade means no Xavier Watts, Atlanta keeping their 2025 second-rounder and their 2026 first-rounder does more for them in the long run. I do not want to get too deep into the hypotheticals since we don't know what they'll do with those picks, but having them is a better look.
There's also the elephant in the room here, because if Cousins remains the starter and Atlanta makes the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, there's no world in where Arthur Blank fires Fontenot and Raheem Morris off of two playoff appearances, meaning Kevin Stefanski never gets hired by Atlanta.
The debate about whether or not this team would truly be better off without Penix, let alone Stefanski, is one thing, but I don't think any Falcons fan is complaining about losing out on the 25-year-old if it means two straight playoff seasons.