The 2024 NFL Draft is home to one of the strongest quarterback classes in recent memory, which is why there were six passers selected in the first round of the draft for the first time since 1983. And aside from Michael Penix Jr., most of the QBs drafted on Day 1 back in 2024 have been successful.
Drake Maye is coming off a season where he finished second in MVP voting and took the New England Patriots to the Super Bowl, Jayden Daniels won Offensive Rookie of the Year and he and Bo Nix have each been a win away from the Super Bowl, while Caleb Williams also has a bright future.
And then you have the ugly stepchild of one of the best QB drafts of all time. While they are all setting the league on fire, Penix has made just 12 starts in his career, is recovering from his third ACL tear in the last seven years, and has a career completion percentage less than 60%. If you're the Atlanta Falcons, that doesn't exactly inspire confidence going forward.
The success of the 2024 Draft class makes the Michael Penix Jr. pick look even worse
At this point, it's getting harder for the Falcons to believe in the former No. 8 overall pick as their long-term franchise quarterback. As training camp looms, Penix is at risk of losing his starting job to Tua Tagovailoa despite coming off the worst statistical season of his career. And this new regime didn't draft him, so they don't have the same level of investment in his development.
Making matters even worse, successes of these other quarterbacks puts his own struggles in perspective. After the season, all of these signal-callers are eligible for long-term contract extensions, and there won't be any hesitation to pay Nix, Maye, Daniels, and Williams premium money.
They all should clear $50 million a year on second contracts, while it's no guarantee Atlanta keeps Penix through the duration of his rookie deal. The first order of business is getting healthy, because if he isn't cleared for full contact by the start of training camp on Thursday, he'll likely start the year on the bench--so he may not even be starting by the end of the season.
The 26-year-old is entering a season where if he stumbles, the Falcons are in a position where they can draft his eventual successor in the 2027 Draft. But it doesn't even end there. After the season, the Dirty Birds will also have to decide whether or not they want to pick up Penix's fifth-year option- which doesn't appear likely right now, and certainly won't happen if he's no longer the starter.
There is a lot of hope that Michael Penix Jr. to turn things around. He's showed of flashes of the passer he can be and a new coaching staff should benefit him, But there are still some major red flags, especially pertaining to his struggles with accuracy and ability to stay healthy.
Between Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, and Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye, the 2024 NFL Draft produced four of the league's best young QBs. And as they continue to thrive and eventually get paid, it will continue to make the Penix pick look worse for the Falcons if he's unable to turn things around.
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